Argentina: First Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion, Rephasing of Access, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
IMF Staff Country Reports, August 1, 2025
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- Argentina: First Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion, Rephasing of Access, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
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Bibliographic details
- Published: August 1, 2025
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229019224.002
Key findings
- Tight macroeconomic policies facilitated a smooth transition to a more flexible exchange rate regime and the easing of foreign exchange restrictions.
- Program performance has been generally positive:
- The primary fiscal surplus target for end-May was met with a margin.
- No central bank monetary financing occurred.
- Continued adequate social program coverage was maintained.
- The mid-June target for net international reserves accumulation was missed due to:
- Significant reserve losses.
- Limited return of outflows.
- Influences from domestic and external uncertainties.
- The authorities' preference for price discovery and disinflation.
Economic outlook and projections
- Real GDP growth is projected at 5.5 percent in 2025.
- Inflation is expected to fall to 20–25 percent by year-end 2025.
- Maintaining tight and balanced macroeconomic policies is essential to:
- Anchor disinflation.
- Improve reserve buffers.
- Support access to international capital markets.
Reserve dynamics and external environment
- Reserve losses and limited return of outflows led to missing the mid-June net international reserves accumulation target.
- External and domestic uncertainties, together with policy choices prioritizing price discovery and disinflation, affected reserve recovery.
Structural reform agenda and implementation
- Authorities are pursuing an ambitious structural reform agenda focused on:
- Enhancing state efficiency.
- Fostering a more market-based economy with flexible product and labor markets.
- Attracting long-term investment.
- Policies will be implemented to manage potential dislocation costs from these reforms.
Policy implications and recommendations
- Continue tight and balanced macroeconomic policies to sustain disinflation and rebuild reserves.
- Preserve policy credibility to support re-access to international capital markets.
- Advance structural reforms to improve state efficiency and deepen product and labor market flexibility, while using targeted measures to mitigate short-term social or labor dislocations.
Source: Argentina: First Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion, Rephasing of Access, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina (IMF Staff Country Report No. 2025/219).
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