Saudi Arabia: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
IMF Staff Country Reports, August 4, 2025
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Bibliographic details
- Published: August 4, 2025
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229019989.002
Macroeconomic assessment and outlook
- Saudi Arabia’s economy has demonstrated strong resilience to shocks.
- Non-oil economic activities are expanding.
- Inflation is contained.
- Unemployment has reached record-low levels.
- The outlook remains strong but with risks to the downside amid heightened uncertainty and declining commodity prices.
- External and fiscal buffers remain ample, even as current account and fiscal deficits persist over the medium term.
Near-term risks and upside scenarios
- Downside risks:
- Weaker oil demand due to global trade tensions.
- Lower government spending.
- Regional security risks that could dampen investor sentiment.
- Upside scenarios:
- Higher oil production supporting growth.
- Additional investments linked to Vision 2030 initiatives supporting growth.
- Higher oil prices if the global recovery strengthens or in case of disruptions to the global supply of oil.
Policy recommendations
- Fiscal policy:
- Pursue a countercyclical fiscal stance given heightened global uncertainty.
- Financial sector:
- Address strong credit to mitigate risks to systemic financial stability.
- Structural policy:
- Advance structural reforms to sustain non-oil growth and drive economic diversification, irrespective of oil price developments.
Publication metadata and identifiers
- Publication date: August 4, 2025
- Pages: 96
- Volume: 2025
- Issue: 223
- Series: Country Report No. 2025/223
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229019989.002
- Stock No: 1SAUEA2025001
- ISBN: 9798229019989
- ISSN: 1934-7685
International Monetary Fund. Saudi Arabia: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
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