Social Spending Targets in IMF-Supported Programs in Sub-Saharan Africa

Departmental Papers, September 17, 2025

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Authors: Ghislain Afavi, Vaishali Ashtakala, Irena Jankulov Suljagic, Pedro Juca Maciel, Myrto Oikonomou, Johanna Tiedemann, Luc Tucker, Arina Viseth, Frederic Lambert
Published: September 17, 2025
Series: Departmental Papers
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229014595.087

Analysis period: 2002 to 2024.
Focus: significance and effectiveness of social spending targets in IMF-supported programs in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Context: highlights evolution of targets particularly following the 2009 reform of IMF’s facilities for low-income countries.
Authors: Ghislain Afavi, Vaishali Ashtakala, Irena Jankulov Suljagic, Pedro Juca Maciel, Myrto Oikonomou, Johanna Tiedemann, Luc Tucker, Arina Viseth, Frederic Lambert.
Publication date: September 17, 2025.
Format: Departmental Paper No 2025/005, Pages: 38, Volume: 2025, Issue: 005, Stock No: SSTSSAEA, ISBN: 9798229014595, ISSN: 2616-5333, DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229014595.087.

Social spending targets in the region represent a significant share of tax revenue.
Social spending targets have a favorable completion rate compared with other fiscal conditionalities.
Despite economic challenges during IMF-supported programs, social spending on health and education has generally been preserved and in some cases increased.
Positive outcomes associated with preserved/increased social spending include improved educational enrollment and reduced infant mortality rates.
The study emphasizes the need to refine social spending targets to better serve vulnerable populations and adapt to changing economic conditions.

The 2009 reform of IMF’s facilities for low-income countries is identified as a turning point in the evolution of social spending targets.
The evolution reflects a growing recognition of the importance of safeguarding social expenditures amidst fiscal constraints.

Health and education spending were generally preserved and, in some instances, increased during IMF-supported programs in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Associated positive outcomes reported in the paper include:
- Improved educational enrollment.
- Reduced infant mortality rates.

Refine social spending targets to more effectively reach vulnerable populations.
Adapt targets to changing economic conditions to maintain social protections during fiscal adjustments.
Maintain emphasis on safeguarding health and education expenditures within program design given their demonstrated association with improved social outcomes.

Source: Social Spending Targets in IMF-Supported Programs in Sub-Saharan Africa, Departmental Paper No 2025/005.