IMF Global Financial Stability Report: Navigating Monetary Policy Challenges and Managing Risks

Global Financial Stability Report, April 8, 2015

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IMF Global Financial Stability Report: Navigating Monetary Policy Challenges and Managing Risks

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Bibliographic details

• Published: April 8, 2015
• Series: Global Financial Stability Report

Publication details

• April 2015

Major findings and risk assessment

• Global financial stability risks have risen since October.
• Risks are rotating:
  • away from banks to shadow banks;
  • from solvency to market liquidity risks;
  • from advanced economies to emerging markets.
• In advanced economies, key challenges:
  • enhance the traction of accommodative monetary policies;
  • ensure a smooth normalization of monetary policy in the United States;
  • manage the undesirable side effects of low interest rates.
• In emerging markets, key challenges:
  • address domestic financial vulnerabilities from weaker growth, lower commodity prices, and a stronger dollar;
  • strengthen resilience to the changing global environment.

Chapter 1 — Enhancing policy traction and reducing risks (summary of substantive analysis)

• Reiterates that global financial stability risks have risen since October and are rotating across sectors and regions.
• Highlights disinflationary forces and asset valuation and volatility concerns (referenced figures: Global Disinflationary Forces; Asset Valuation and Volatility Heat Maps).
• Documents potential spillovers and sector impacts, including:
  • The Oil Price Fallout—Spillovers and Implications for the Financial Sector (Box 1.1).
  • Russia’s Financial Risks and Potential Spillovers (Box 1.2).
• Identifies undesirable side effects of prolonged low interest rates and the policy challenge of managing portfolio rebalancing effects (referenced: Quantitative Easing Impact Channels; Illustrative “Baseline” QE Portfolio Rebalancing Scenarios in Japan and the Euro Area).
• Provides empirical and tabulated evidence on household and corporate debt across advanced economies (Tables 1.1 and 1.2) and on sovereign, corporate, and banking indicators (Table 1.5).

Chapter 2 — International banking after the crisis: increasingly local and safer? (substantive analysis)

• Documents a shift from direct cross-border lending to local lending by foreign banks’ affiliates.
• Identifies drivers of the decline in cross-border lending:
  • regulatory changes;
  • weaknesses in bank balance sheets;
  • macroeconomic factors.
• Notes that the shift can positively affect host-country financial stability:
  • cross-border lending tends to compound adverse domestic and global shocks;
  • foreign-owned subsidiaries behave less procyclically than domestic banks during domestic crises.
• Calls for more international cooperation to maximize benefits of international banking while mitigating risks.
• Analytical emphases and empirical materials include:
  • The international expansion of Chinese and Japanese banks;
  • Expansion of pan-African banks;
  • Banking union developments in Europe;
  • Areas in need of regulatory and supervisory attention for global banks.
• Empirical/table/figure coverage referenced (selected): Developments in Foreign Banking Claims; Changes in Capital Flows; Effect of International Banking Linkages on Domestic Credit Growth; Lending Growth by Domestic and Foreign-Owned Banks during Crises.

Chapter 3 — The asset management industry and financial stability (substantive analysis)

• Focuses on risks from the asset management industry, including “plain-vanilla” products such as mutual funds.
• Identifies key risk mechanisms:
  • incentive problems created by delegated management that may lead to herding;
  • run risk stemming from liquidity mismatches between fund assets and investor redemption rights;
  • first-mover advantages created by fund share pricing rules.
• Empirical analysis finds evidence for many of these risk-creating mechanisms, with importance varying across markets.
• Policy implication: oversight of the industry should be strengthened through better microprudential supervision of risks and by adopting a more-encompassing (macroprudential) approach.
• Sections and empirical topics highlighted include: Fund Share Pricing Rules and First-Mover Advantage; Mutual Fund Flows and Asset Returns; Liquidity Mismatches; Growth in Bond Funds by Investment Focus; Contribution to Systemic Risk by Mutual Funds.

Policy recommendations and supervisory implications (synthesized from report text)

• Advanced economies should:
  • enhance policy traction of accommodative monetary settings;
  • ensure smooth U.S. monetary policy normalization;
  • manage side effects of low interest rates, including portfolio rebalancing risks.
• Emerging markets should:
  • address domestic vulnerabilities from weaker growth, lower commodity prices, and a stronger dollar;
  • strengthen resilience to changing global financial conditions.
• International banking sector:
  • increase international cooperation to capture benefits of regionalized/localized banking while mitigating cross-border spillovers.
• Asset management industry:
  • strengthen oversight and supervision of mutual funds and similar vehicles;
  • adopt microprudential measures focused on liquidity risk management and incentive structures;
  • adopt macroprudential approaches where industry-wide run and herding risks can affect system-wide stability.

Key referenced empirical materials and analytical tools (selection)

• Charts and figures referenced include: Global Financial Stability Map; Quantitative Easing and Financial Markets; U.S. Interest Rates and Term Premiums; The October 15 Flash Rally in U.S. Treasuries; Emerging Market Nonfinancial Corporate Investment Continues to Shrink; Large Increase in Emerging Market Debt; Financial Stability of Emerging Market Banks.
• Tables and annexes cover household and corporate debt, potential portfolio outflows, and portfolio rebalancing scenarios (for example, Annex Tables 1.2.1 and 1.2.3).

IMF Global Financial Stability Report: Navigating Monetary Policy Challenges and Managing Risks — April 2015

Content in this bundle

• Annexfigure1 2 1
  • Annexfigure1 2 1 (Markdown version)
  • Annexfigure1 2 1 (CSV)
• Annextable1 2 1
  • Annextable1 2 1 (Markdown version)
  • Annextable1 2 1 (CSV)
• Annextable1 2 2
  • Annextable1 2 2 (Markdown version)
  • Annextable1 2 2 (CSV)
• Table 1.2.3. Potential Portfolio Outflows by Japanese Institutional Investors, 2015�17
  • Table 1.2.3. Potential Portfolio Outflows by Japanese Institutional Investors, 2015�17 (Markdown version)
  • Table 1.2.3. Potential Portfolio Outflows by Japanese Institutional Investors, 2015�17 (CSV)
• Figure 1.1. Global Financial Stability Map
  • Figure 1.1. Global Financial Stability Map (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.1. Global Financial Stability Map (CSV)
• Figure 1.10. Illustrative “Baseline” QE Portfolio Rebalancing Scenarios in Japan and the Euro Area
  • Figure 1.10. Illustrative “Baseline” QE Portfolio Rebalancing Scenarios in Japan and the Euro Area (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.10. Illustrative “Baseline” QE Portfolio Rebalancing Scenarios in Japan and the Euro Area (CSV)
• Figure1 11
  • Figure1 11 (Markdown version)
  • Figure1 11 (CSV)
• Figure 1.12. Bank Nonperforming Loans and Lending Conditions
  • Figure 1.12. Bank Nonperforming Loans and Lending Conditions (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.12. Bank Nonperforming Loans and Lending Conditions (CSV)
• figure1_13
  • figure1_13 (Markdown version)
  • figure1_13 (CSV)
• Figure 1.14. United States: Nonfinancial Corporations
  • Figure 1.14. United States: Nonfinancial Corporations (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.14. United States: Nonfinancial Corporations (CSV)
• Figure 1.15. U.S. Credit Spreads, Firm Leverage, and Interest Coverage
  • Figure 1.15. U.S. Credit Spreads, Firm Leverage, and Interest Coverage (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.15. U.S. Credit Spreads, Firm Leverage, and Interest Coverage (CSV)
• Figure 1.16. U.S. High-Yield Energy Markets
  • Figure 1.16. U.S. High-Yield Energy Markets (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.16. U.S. High-Yield Energy Markets (CSV)
• Figure 1.17. U.S. Interest Rates and Term Premiums
  • Figure 1.17. U.S. Interest Rates and Term Premiums (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.17. U.S. Interest Rates and Term Premiums (CSV)
• Figure 1.2. Global Financial Stability Map: Components of Risks and Conditions
  • Figure 1.2. Global Financial Stability Map: Components of Risks and Conditions (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.2. Global Financial Stability Map: Components of Risks and Conditions (CSV)
• Figure 1.20. Asset Comovements and Correlations Spillovers
  • Figure 1.20. Asset Comovements and Correlations Spillovers (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.20. Asset Comovements and Correlations Spillovers (CSV)
• Figure 1.21. Wide Range in the Inflation Outlook of Emerging Market Economies
  • Figure 1.21. Wide Range in the Inflation Outlook of Emerging Market Economies (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.21. Wide Range in the Inflation Outlook of Emerging Market Economies (CSV)
• Figure 1.22. China: Real Estate and Interest Rate Developments
  • Figure 1.22. China: Real Estate and Interest Rate Developments (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.22. China: Real Estate and Interest Rate Developments (CSV)
• Figure 1.23. Emerging Market Nonfinancial Corporate Investment Continues to Shrink
  • Figure 1.23. Emerging Market Nonfinancial Corporate Investment Continues to Shrink (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.23. Emerging Market Nonfinancial Corporate Investment Continues to Shrink (CSV)
• Figure1 24
  • Figure1 24 (Markdown version)
  • Figure1 24 (CSV)
• Figure 1.25. Energy Corporate Sector Metrics
  • Figure 1.25. Energy Corporate Sector Metrics (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.25. Energy Corporate Sector Metrics (CSV)
• Figure 1.26. Large Increase in Emerging Market Debt
  • Figure 1.26. Large Increase in Emerging Market Debt (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.26. Large Increase in Emerging Market Debt (CSV)
• Figure 1.27. Firms in Countries with Large Currency Selloffs Also Had High Equity Volatility
  • Figure 1.27. Firms in Countries with Large Currency Selloffs Also Had High Equity Volatility (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.27. Firms in Countries with Large Currency Selloffs Also Had High Equity Volatility (CSV)
• Figure 1.28. Financial Stability of Emerging Market Banks
  • Figure 1.28. Financial Stability of Emerging Market Banks (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.28. Financial Stability of Emerging Market Banks (CSV)
• Figure 1.3. Global Disinflationary Forces
  • Figure 1.3. Global Disinflationary Forces (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.3. Global Disinflationary Forces (CSV)
• figure1_4
  • figure1_4 (Markdown version)
  • figure1_4 (CSV)
• Figure 1.6. Private Nonfinancial Sector Gross Debt
  • Figure 1.6. Private Nonfinancial Sector Gross Debt (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.6. Private Nonfinancial Sector Gross Debt (CSV)
• Figure 1.7. Episodes of Private Sector Deleveraging in Selected Advanced Economies
  • Figure 1.7. Episodes of Private Sector Deleveraging in Selected Advanced Economies (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.7. Episodes of Private Sector Deleveraging in Selected Advanced Economies (CSV)
• Figure 1.8. Insolvency Frameworks and Macroeconomic Deleveraging
  • Figure 1.8. Insolvency Frameworks and Macroeconomic Deleveraging (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.8. Insolvency Frameworks and Macroeconomic Deleveraging (CSV)
• Table 1.1. Household Debt in the Euro Area, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States
  • Table 1.1. Household Debt in the Euro Area, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States (Markdown version)
  • Table 1.1. Household Debt in the Euro Area, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States (CSV)
• Table 1.2. Corporate Debt in the Euro Area, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States
  • Table 1.2. Corporate Debt in the Euro Area, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States (Markdown version)
  • Table 1.2. Corporate Debt in the Euro Area, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States (CSV)
• Table 1.4. Energy�s Impact on Two Barclays Corporate Credit Indices
  • Table 1.4. Energy�s Impact on Two Barclays Corporate Credit Indices (Markdown version)
  • Table 1.4. Energy�s Impact on Two Barclays Corporate Credit Indices (CSV)
• Table 1.5. Summary of Sovereign, Corporate, and Banking Indicators
  • Table 1.5. Summary of Sovereign, Corporate, and Banking Indicators (Markdown version)
  • Table 1.5. Summary of Sovereign, Corporate, and Banking Indicators (CSV)
• boxfigure2_1 — Dataset overview
  • boxfigure2_1 — Dataset overview (Markdown version)
  • boxfigure2_1 — Dataset overview (CSV)
• Figure 2.2.1. Major Pan-African Banks: Cross-Border Expansion, 2002�14
  • Figure 2.2.1. Major Pan-African Banks: Cross-Border Expansion, 2002�14 (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.2.1. Major Pan-African Banks: Cross-Border Expansion, 2002�14 (CSV)
• Figure 2.3.1. Sovereign Bond and Corporate Lending Rates in the Euro Area
  • Figure 2.3.1. Sovereign Bond and Corporate Lending Rates in the Euro Area (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.3.1. Sovereign Bond and Corporate Lending Rates in the Euro Area (CSV)
• Figure 2.1. Developments in Foreign Banking Claims
  • Figure 2.1. Developments in Foreign Banking Claims (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.1. Developments in Foreign Banking Claims (CSV)
• Figure 2.11. Changes in Capital Flows
  • Figure 2.11. Changes in Capital Flows (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.11. Changes in Capital Flows (CSV)
• figure2_3
  • figure2_3 (Markdown version)
  • figure2_3 (CSV)
• Figure 2.4. Banking Regionalization in Asia
  • Figure 2.4. Banking Regionalization in Asia (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.4. Banking Regionalization in Asia (CSV)
• Figure 2.5. Trends in Latin America and Europe
  • Figure 2.5. Trends in Latin America and Europe (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.5. Trends in Latin America and Europe (CSV)
• Figure 2.7. Changes in Corporate Borrowing
  • Figure 2.7. Changes in Corporate Borrowing (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.7. Changes in Corporate Borrowing (CSV)
• Figure2 8
  • Figure2 8 (Markdown version)
  • Figure2 8 (CSV)
• figure2_9
  • figure2_9 (Markdown version)
  • figure2_9 (CSV)
• Figure 3.2.2. Difference between NAV and ETF Share Price
  • Figure 3.2.2. Difference between NAV and ETF Share Price (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.2.2. Difference between NAV and ETF Share Price (CSV)
• Figure 3.1.1. Investment Vehicles by Size, Domicile, and Investment Focus
  • Figure 3.1.1. Investment Vehicles by Size, Domicile, and Investment Focus (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.1.1. Investment Vehicles by Size, Domicile, and Investment Focus (CSV)
• Figure 3.1. Financial Intermediation by the Asset Management Industry Worldwide
  • Figure 3.1. Financial Intermediation by the Asset Management Industry Worldwide (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.1. Financial Intermediation by the Asset Management Industry Worldwide (CSV)
• Figure 3.10. Liquidity Risk and Fund Structures
  • Figure 3.10. Liquidity Risk and Fund Structures (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.10. Liquidity Risk and Fund Structures (CSV)
• Figure 3.14. Ownership Structure of the 25 Largest Global Asset Management Companies
  • Figure 3.14. Ownership Structure of the 25 Largest Global Asset Management Companies (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.14. Ownership Structure of the 25 Largest Global Asset Management Companies (CSV)
• Figure 3.15. Bank Financing by Mutual Funds and Money Market Funds
  • Figure 3.15. Bank Financing by Mutual Funds and Money Market Funds (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.15. Bank Financing by Mutual Funds and Money Market Funds (CSV)
• Figure 3.2. Products Offered by Asset Managers and Their Recent Growth
  • Figure 3.2. Products Offered by Asset Managers and Their Recent Growth (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.2. Products Offered by Asset Managers and Their Recent Growth (CSV)
• Figure 3.3. Key Domiciles of Mutual Funds
  • Figure 3.3. Key Domiciles of Mutual Funds (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.3. Key Domiciles of Mutual Funds (CSV)
• Figure 3.6. Growth in Bond Funds by Investment Focus
  • Figure 3.6. Growth in Bond Funds by Investment Focus (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.6. Growth in Bond Funds by Investment Focus (CSV)
• Figure 3.7. Bond Ownership Concentration and Its Effects on Credit Spreads
  • Figure 3.7. Bond Ownership Concentration and Its Effects on Credit Spreads (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.7. Bond Ownership Concentration and Its Effects on Credit Spreads (CSV)
• Figure 3.8. Drivers of Fund Flows from End Investors
  • Figure 3.8. Drivers of Fund Flows from End Investors (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.8. Drivers of Fund Flows from End Investors (CSV)
• Figure 1. Major Net Exporters and Importers of Capital in 2013
  • Figure 1. Major Net Exporters and Importers of Capital in 2013 (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1. Major Net Exporters and Importers of Capital in 2013 (CSV)
• Figure 6. U.S. Corporate Bond Market
  • Figure 6. U.S. Corporate Bond Market (Markdown version)
  • Figure 6. U.S. Corporate Bond Market (CSV)
• Figure 7. Euro Area Corporate Bond Market
  • Figure 7. Euro Area Corporate Bond Market (Markdown version)
  • Figure 7. Euro Area Corporate Bond Market (CSV)
• Figure 8. U.S. Commercial Paper Market
  • Figure 8. U.S. Commercial Paper Market (Markdown version)
  • Figure 8. U.S. Commercial Paper Market (CSV)
• Table 1. Capital Market Size: Selected Indicators, 2013
  • Table 1. Capital Market Size: Selected Indicators, 2013 (Markdown version)
  • Table 1. Capital Market Size: Selected Indicators, 2013 (CSV)
• Table 10. Emerging Markets: Mutual Funds
  • Table 10. Emerging Markets: Mutual Funds (Markdown version)
  • Table 10. Emerging Markets: Mutual Funds (CSV)
• Table 2. MSCI Equity Market Indices
  • Table 2. MSCI Equity Market Indices (Markdown version)
  • Table 2. MSCI Equity Market Indices (CSV)
• Table 3. Emerging Markets Bond Index: EMBI Global Sovereign Yield Spreads
  • Table 3. Emerging Markets Bond Index: EMBI Global Sovereign Yield Spreads (Markdown version)
  • Table 3. Emerging Markets Bond Index: EMBI Global Sovereign Yield Spreads (CSV)
• Table 4. Emerging Market Private External Financing: Total Bonds, Equities, and Loans
  • Table 4. Emerging Market Private External Financing: Total Bonds, Equities, and Loans (Markdown version)
  • Table 4. Emerging Market Private External Financing: Total Bonds, Equities, and Loans (CSV)
• Table 5. Emerging Market Private External Financing: Bonds
  • Table 5. Emerging Market Private External Financing: Bonds (Markdown version)
  • Table 5. Emerging Market Private External Financing: Bonds (CSV)
• Table 6. Emerging Market Private External Financing: Equity
  • Table 6. Emerging Market Private External Financing: Equity (Markdown version)
  • Table 6. Emerging Market Private External Financing: Equity (CSV)
• Table 7. Emerging Market Private External Financing: Loans
  • Table 7. Emerging Market Private External Financing: Loans (Markdown version)
  • Table 7. Emerging Market Private External Financing: Loans (CSV)
• Table 8. Equity Valuation Measures: Dividend-Yield Ratios
  • Table 8. Equity Valuation Measures: Dividend-Yield Ratios (Markdown version)
  • Table 8. Equity Valuation Measures: Dividend-Yield Ratios (CSV)
• Table 9. Equity Valuation Measures: Price/Earnings Ratios
  • Table 9. Equity Valuation Measures: Price/Earnings Ratios (Markdown version)
  • Table 9. Equity Valuation Measures: Price/Earnings Ratios (CSV)
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  • ملخص الفصلين: الصيرفة الدولية بعد الأزمة؛ وصناعة إدارة الأصول والاستقرار المالي (Markdown version)
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  • ملخص واف لتقرير الاستقرار المالي العالمي - إبريل 2015 (Markdown version)
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• نشرة صندوق النقد الدولي
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• AnnexFigure1_2_1
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• ratioDistanceFigure 2.10
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• 13Figure 2.1.1
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• Annex Figure 3.1.1
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• Annex Figure 3.1.1
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• Annex Figure 3.1.2
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• Annex Figure 3.2.1
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• Figure 3.10
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• Figure 3.11
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• feeFigure 3.12
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• Figure 3.13
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• Figure 3.14
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• Figure 3.15
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• Figure 3.16
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• Figure 3.1
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• Figure 3.2.1
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• Figure 3.2.2
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• Figure 3.2
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• Figure 3.3
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• Figure 3.4
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• Figure 3.5
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• Figure 3.6
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• Figure 3.7
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• Figure 3.8
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• Figure 3.9
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• CHAPTER 1 EnhancIng polIcy tractIon and rEducIng rIsks
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• GFSR April 2015: Chapter 2 - International Banking After The Crisis:Increasingly Local And Safer?
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• GFSR April 2015: Chapter 3 - The Asset Management Industry And Financial Stability
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• April 2015 Global Financial Stability Report- Executive Summary
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• April 2015 Global Financial Stability Report- Preface
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• Global Financial Stability Report- April 2015: Statistical Appendix
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• April 2015 Global Financial Stability Report- Executive Summary
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• GFSR- April 2015: Chapter 2 Summary
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• GFSR- Arpil 2015: Chapter 3 Summary
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• _textpdf
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• Резюме по главам 2 и 3 -- Доклад по вопросам глобальной финансовой стабильности, апрель 2015 года
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• Аналитическое резюме -- Доклад по вопросам глобальной финансовой стабильности, апрель 2015 года
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• Informe sobre la estabilidad financiera mundial - Resúmenes de los capítulos 2 y 3; abril de 2015
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• Informe sobre la estabilidad financiera mundial - Resumen Ejecutivo; Abril 2015
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References

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• Survey Article: Chapter 1
• Survey Article: Chapter 2
• Survey Article: Chapter 3
• Survey Article: Chapter 1
• Survey Article: Chapter 1
• Survey Article: Chapter 2
• Survey Article: Chapter 1
• Survey Article: Chapter 2
• Survey Article: Chapter 3
• Survey Article: Chapter 1
• Survey Article: Chapter 2
• Survey Article: Chapter 3
• Survey Story
• Survey Story
• Survey Story
• Financial Soundness Indicators