Changing Patterns of Global Trade

Policy Papers, June 15, 2011

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As a share of global output, trade is now at almost three times the level in the early 1950s.
Growth in trade has been driven in large part by the integration of rapidly growing emerging market economies (EMEs).
The expansion in trade is mostly accounted for by growth in noncommodity exports, especially of high-technology products such as computers and electronics.
Trade developments are characterized by a growing role of global supply chains and an ongoing shift of technology content toward EMEs.
These developments have been associated with growing trade interconnectedness and carry important implications for trade patterns, in particular in response to relative price changes.

Aim of the paper: outline the factors underlying these changes and analyze their implications for the outlook for global trade patterns.

Increased integration of EMEs implies that shocks and price changes in EMEs can have amplified effects on global trade patterns.
The rise of noncommodity and high-technology exports shifts comparative advantage dynamics and may alter trade elasticities and adjustment channels.
The growing role of global supply chains suggests policy attention to cross-border production linkages and the propagation of shocks through intermediate goods trade.
The shift of technology content toward EMEs highlights the importance of policies that support technology diffusion, skills, and infrastructure in both EMEs and advanced economies.

Changing Patterns of Global Trade, June 15, 2011.

Changing Patterns of Global Trade ; IMF Policy Paper; June 15, 2011
- Changing Patterns of Global Trade ; IMF Policy Paper; June 15, 2011 (Markdown version)
- Changing Patterns of Global Trade ; IMF Policy Paper; June 15, 2011 (PDF)