Policy Papers

The series of major economic shocks since 2020 has added to longstanding development challenges, with low-income and fragile countries affected the most. The negative economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the spillovers from the war in Ukraine, and the tightening of international financial conditions after 2022 have added to preexisting structural obstacles weighing on economic and social progress in developing countries. While some of these factors have subsided since 2023, the escalation of trade tensions at the beginning of 2025, and the resulting impact on global growth and international financial conditions, including elevated uncertainty and significant downside risks weighing on the outlook, have again negative implications for most developing countries. In addition, natural disasters, climate and demographic challenges, geopolitical tensions, political instability, and conflicts, can be expected to add further to the challenges, even though some developments, including artificial intelligence and digitalization, may be beneficial. That said, while developing countries share many characteristics, increasing heterogeneity in their economic conditions and exposures to risks calls for appropriate differentiation in countries’ policy and reform agendas, as well as in the support from the international community. Particular attention must be paid to the situation of the poorest and fragile countries.