World Economic Outlook, April 2014: Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven
World Economic Outlook, April 8, 2014
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- World Economic Outlook, April 2014: Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven
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Bibliographic details
- Published: April 8, 2014
- Series: World Economic Outlook
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484308349.081
Summary
- Global activity has broadly strengthened and is expected to improve further in 2014–15, with much of the impetus for growth coming from advanced economies.
- Although downside risks have diminished overall:
- Lower-than-expected inflation poses risks for advanced economies.
- There is increased financial volatility in emerging market economies.
- Increases in the cost of capital will likely dampen investment and weigh on growth.
Key findings and analysis
- Advanced economy policy stance:
- Advanced economy policymakers need to avoid a premature withdrawal of monetary accommodation.
- Emerging market economy dynamics:
- Emerging market economy policymakers must adopt measures to changing fundamentals, facilitate external adjustment, further monetary policy tightening, and carry out structural reforms.
- Interest rates and real rates:
- A chapter analyzes the causes of worldwide decreases in real interest rates since the 1980s and concludes that global rates can be expected to rise in the medium term, but only moderately.
- Role of China and EM growth:
- Another chapter examines factors behind the fluctuations in emerging market economies’ growth and concludes that strong growth in China played a key role in buffering the effects of the global financial crisis in these economies.
Policy recommendations
- For advanced economies:
- Avoid premature withdrawal of monetary accommodation.
- For emerging market economies:
- Adopt measures to changing fundamentals.
- Facilitate external adjustment.
- Further tighten monetary policy as needed.
- Carry out structural reforms to strengthen resilience.
Subjects and keywords
- Subject: Commodity prices; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Financial crises; Financial markets; Financial services; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Inflation; Prices; Real interest rates
- Keywords: advanced economy; Asia and Pacific; Caribbean; Central America; Commodity prices; economy; EMBI yield; Emerging and frontier financial markets; emerging market economies; emerging market risk; geopolitical risk; Global; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Inflation; longer-term inflation expectation; Middle East; normalization of monetary policy; North Africa; Real interest rates; real rate; South America; Sub-Saharan Africa; terms-of-trade growth; U.S. dollar; WEO