World Economic Outlook Update, January 2025: Global Growth: Divergent and Uncertain

World Economic Outlook, January 2025

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Global growth is projected at 3.3 percent both in 2025 and 2026.
The 2025 global growth forecast is broadly unchanged from the October 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast, primarily because an upward revision in the United States offset downward revisions in other major economies.
Global headline inflation is expected to decline to 4.2 percent in 2025 and to 3.5 percent in 2026.
Projected global growth (3.3 percent) is below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.7 percent.

The near-term outlook is characterized by divergent paths across countries:
- Upside risks could lift already-robust growth in the United States in the short run.
- Risks in other countries are on the downside amid elevated policy uncertainty.
Medium-term risks to the baseline are tilted to the downside.

Renewed inflationary pressures could interrupt the monetary policy pivot toward easing.
Such interruptions could have implications for:
- Fiscal sustainability.
- Financial stability.

The policy mix should:
- Balance trade-offs between inflation containment and supporting real activity.
- Rebuild fiscal and financial buffers.
- Lift medium-term growth prospects through stepped-up structural reforms.
- Strengthen multilateral rules and cooperation.

Source: World Economic Outlook Update, January 2025: Global Growth: Divergent and Uncertain