World Economic Outlook Database for April 2005
World Economic Outlook
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- World Economic Outlook Database for April 2005
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About the WEO database and production
- The WEO database is created during the biannual World Economic Outlook (WEO) exercise, which begins in January and June and results in the April and September WEO publication.
- Selected series from the WEO publication are released on the website on the day of the WEO press conference.
- The WEO exercise is coordinated by the World Economic Studies Division in the Research Department.
- Projections and analysis are an integral element of the IMF's surveillance of economic development and policies in member countries and of the global economic system.
- The survey of prospects and policies is the product of a comprehensive interdepartmental review drawing primarily on information IMF staff gather through consultations with member countries.
- WEO projections are prepared by IMF country economists based on internationally consistent assumptions about world economic activity, exchange rates, and conditions in international financial and commodity markets.
- Advanced economies and the largest developing countries which account for 90 percent of world output provide a full set of projections for each WEO exercise.
- Most smaller countries provide updates of key variables for each WEO exercise and a full set of projections at the time of the IMF's regular Article IV consultations unless world developments necessitate more frequent updates.
Key updates and historical changes (selected)
- April 2005:
- Data for Afghanistan are included.
- The base year for time series expressed in index form has been re-indexed to 2000.
- El Salvador currency has been changed to dollar.
- London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) series are included for euro area, Japan and the United states.
- The purchasing power parity (PPP) weights have been updated to reflect the most up-to-date PPP conversion factor provided by the World Bank.
- September 2004:
- The European Union added 10 new member nations on May 1, 2004, enlarging the group to a total of 25 countries: Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovak Republic, and Slovenia.
- April 2004:
- The former three-way split of the world has been revised to two categories: “advanced economies” and “other emerging market and developing countries.”
- Turkey and Malta are now included in Central and Eastern Europe.
- Timor-Leste, Dem. Rep. of is now included in the WEO database.
- Current account balance projections are now included for all countries.
- The PPP weights updated to reflect new price surveys using the new benchmark year of 2000.
- Other historical notes:
- April 2003: Growth and inflation projections for Serbia and Montenegro are included.
- September 2003: No changes were introduced.
- September 2002: Growth and inflation projections are included for all countries through 2003.
- Multiple earlier adjustments to group compositions and classifications are noted for 2001 and 2002.
Data conventions and availability
- End dates of country-specific series correspond to those appearing in the WEO publication.
- Series expressed in index form are based on 2000=100 except for the GDP deflator, which is expressed in the base year of each country's national accounts.
- Not all data appearing in the WEO publication are disseminated through the site; additional data may be released over time.
- Domestic economy series are expressed in billions of national currency units.
- External accounts series are expressed in billions of U.S. dollars.
- Missing data are indicated by "N/A".
- Unavailable data are indicated by a blank.
Data coverage by series (high-level)
- Gross Domestic Product, Constant Prices (national currency and annual percent change)
- Real GDP is expressed in billions of national currency units; the base year is country-specific.
- Annual percentages of constant price GDP are year-on-year changes.
- Group aggregates are available in growth rate form only because aggregates are created from percent changes rather than levels.
- Chain-weighted methodology applies for listed countries; earlier data for specified years are based on unrevised national accounts (see country-specific notes).
- The percent changes in 2002 for Cameroon are calculated over a period of 18 months.
- Gross Domestic Product, Current Prices (national currency and U.S. dollars)
- GDP is expressed in billions of national currency units and in U.S. dollars based on currency conversions and exchange rate projections described for groups.
- Per Capita GDP (constant and current prices; national currency and U.S. dollars)
- Derived by dividing GDP by total population as specified per measure.
- GDP Deflator (index and annual percent change)
- Derived by dividing current price GDP by constant price GDP; data expressed in the base year of each country's national accounts.
- Output Gap (ratio to potential GDP)
- Output gaps for advanced economies are calculated as actual GDP less potential GDP as a percent of potential GDP; estimates are subject to significant margin of uncertainty.
- Savings and Investment (percent of GDP)
- Based on national accounts; country group composites calculated as sum of U.S. dollar values for relevant countries.
- GDP Based on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) Valuation
- Data form the basis for country weights used to generate WEO country group composites; IMF is not a primary source for PPP data.
- Inflation (consumer prices; index and annual percent change)
- Data are averages for the year, not end-of-period data; index is based on 2000=100.
- Euro area countries and the United Kingdom use Eurostat's harmonized index of consumer prices.
- New Zealand: excluding interest rate components.
- Data for Islamic Republic of Iran refer to fiscal year.
- Unemployment Rate (percent)
- United States projections adjusted to reflect survey techniques adopted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in January 1994.
- General Government Fiscal Balances and Structural Balances (national currency and ratio to GDP or potential GDP)
- Data are on a national income accounts basis; structural balances defined as actual budget position less cyclical effects.
- Country-specific methodological notes: Australia, Austria, France, Ireland, Korea, New Zealand, Norway, and euro area aggregates have special treatments noted.
- Excludes certain one-off receipts and sizable asset sale transactions (country-specific percent-of-GDP adjustments listed).
- General Government Gross and Net Debt (national currency and ratio to GDP)
- Net debt comprises end-year gross liabilities minus government assets on a consolidated account basis.
- Germany: data before 1990 refer to west Germany; beginning in 1995 Treuhandanstalt debt equivalent to 8 percent of GDP is taken over by general government with associated debt service of ½ to 1 percent of GDP.
- Net Capital Flows (U.S. dollars)
- Net private capital flows comprise net direct investment, net portfolio flows, and other long- and short-term net investment flows including official and private borrowing.
- Definitions and composition notes for group aggregates and regional definitions (e.g., "Total Emerging Markets", "Emerging Asia", "Middle East") provided; example figures: in 2003, net private capital flows to emerging Asia were US$107.0 billion while other private capital flows net to the region amounted to US$35.0 billion; recapitalization of two large commercial banks in China with foreign reserves of the Bank of China (US$45 billion) is noted.
- Change in reserves: a minus sign indicates an increase.
- External Debt and Debt Service (U.S. dollars and percent of exports and GDP)
- Expressed in billions of U.S. dollars for the group of other emerging market and developing countries only; total debt includes all short- and long-term debt; debt-service payments include interest and amortization.
- Current Account Balance (U.S. dollars and percent of U.S. dollar GDP)
- Based on the IMF Balance of Payments Manual (5th edition, 1993); world total reflects errors, omissions, and exclusion of some entities; euro area calculated as sum of individual euro area countries.
- Trade Volumes and Terms of Trade (annual percent change)
- Trade volumes are trade values deflated by unit value to obtain constant price data; base year of underlying data is 2000.
- Average Petroleum Spot Price (APSP)
- APSP is an equally weighted average of WTI, Brent, and Dubai; price ordering noted: WTI > Brent > Dubai; descriptions of delivery locations and characteristics provided.
- London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR, percent)
- Six-month rate for the United States and Japan; three-month rate for the euro area.
- Country information file
- Provides information on each country's currency, base year of national accounts, and IMF and ISO country codes.
WEO groups, aggregates, and composite construction
- Two major country groups: “advanced economies” and “other emerging market and developing countries.”
- Classification is not strictly criteria-based but has evolved to facilitate analysis; some countries are not included in the groups (examples given).
- Country group composites are either sums or weighted averages of individual country data.
- Multiyear averages of growth rates are expressed as compound annual rates of change unless otherwise indicated.
- Weighting conventions:
- Exchange rates, interest rates, and growth rates of monetary aggregates: weighted by GDP converted to U.S. dollars at market exchange rates (averaged over preceding three years) as a share of group GDP.
- Other domestic-economy data: weighted by GDP at PPPs as a share of total world or group GDP.
- Euro area domestic-economy composites: aggregates of national source data using weights based on 1995 ECU exchange rates.
- Composite unemployment rates and employment growth: weighted by labor force as a share of group labor force.
- External economy composites: sums of individual country data after conversion to U.S. dollars at average market exchange rates for balance of payments data and at end-of-year market exchange rates for debt denominated in currencies other than U.S. dollars.
- Changes in foreign trade volumes and prices: arithmetic averages of percentage changes for individual countries weighted by U.S. dollar value of exports or imports as a share of total world or group exports or imports.
Differences from International Financial Statistics (IFS)
- WEO data are provided to the Research Department at the time of the WEO exercise, not on a continual basis; historical data and projections are based on information gathered by IMF country economists and are staff estimates.
- IFS data are gathered as part of an ongoing data collection in which member country statistical agencies provide public statistics to the IMF.
- Because of differences in data collection techniques, methodology, focus, and timing, data in IFS and WEO may differ.
Contact and additional notes
- Queries about the WEO database should be sent to the e-mail address weo@imf.org
- The site provides the most frequently requested information from the WEO database consistent with the data published in the World Economic Outlook.