Fiscal Expectations Under the Stability and Growth Pact: Evidence from Survey Data
IMF Working Papers, March 1, 2011
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, Jan-Christoph Rülke
- Published: March 1, 2011
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455218943.001
Summary of findings
- The paper uses survey data to analyze whether financial market expectations on government budget deficits changed in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom during the period of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP).
- Accuracy of financial expert deficit forecasts increased in France.
- Convergence between the European Commission's and market experts’ deficit forecasts increased in France, Italy, and the United Kingdom, particularly during the period after SGP’s reform in 2005.
- Convergence between markets’ forecasts and those of the French, German, and Italian national fiscal authorities does not seem to have increased significantly during the SGP.
Data, methods, and scope
- Geographic focus: France, Germany, Italy, United Kingdom.
- Data source: survey data of financial market experts (as described in the paper).
- Timeframe: period of the Stability and Growth Pact, with emphasis on change after SGP reform in 2005.
- Analytical focus: accuracy and convergence of deficit forecasts across market experts, the European Commission, and national fiscal authorities.
Policy-relevant implications (as implied by findings)
- Market forecasts became more accurate or aligned with Commission forecasts in some member states (France, Italy, United Kingdom), especially after the 2005 reform—suggesting a potential role for institutional reforms in shaping market expectations.
- Lack of increased convergence between market forecasts and national fiscal authorities in France, Germany, and Italy indicates persistent divergence that may affect fiscal policy credibility and coordination.
Publication and metadata
- Authors: Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, Jan-Christoph Rülke
- Publication date: March 1, 2011
- Series: Working Paper No. 2011/048
- Volume: 2011
- Issue: 048
- Pages: 40
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455218943.001
- Stock No: WPIEA2011048
- ISBN: 9781455218943
- ISSN: 1018-5941
- Subjects: Budget planning and preparation, Fiscal policy, GDP forecasting, Government debt management, Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts
- Keywords: WP
Source: Fiscal Expectations Under the Stability and Growth Pact: Evidence from Survey Data — https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/fiscal-expectations-under-the-stability-and-growth-pact-evidence-from-survey-data-24689