Debt Sustainability Analyses for Low-Income Countries: An Assessment of Projection Performance
IMF Working Papers, October 30, 2017
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- Debt Sustainability Analyses for Low-Income Countries: An Assessment of Projection Performance
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Henry Mooney, Constance de Soyres
- Published: October 30, 2017
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484324790.001
Scope and methods
- Coverage: debt sustainability analyses (DSAs) for low-income countries (LICs) from 2005-2015.
- Contribution: develops new error assessment methods to evaluate the performance of LIC DSAs.
- Publication details:
- Authors: Henry Mooney, Constance de Soyres
- Date: October 30, 2017
- Series: IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 2017/220
- Pages: 48
- Issue: 220
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484324790.001
- ISBN: 9781484324790
- ISSN: 1018-5941
Key findings on projection performance
- Evidence of a bias towards optimism for public and external debt projections over 2005-2015.
- Biases were most appreciable for LICs with:
- the highest incomes,
- prospects for market access,
- and at “moderate” risk of debt distress.
- Primary drivers of optimistic projections included:
- overly-ambitious fiscal forecasts,
- overly-ambitious growth forecasts,
- and projected “residuals.”
- When controlling for unanticipated shocks, biases remained evident and were driven in part by:
- optimism regarding government fiscal reaction functions,
- optimism regarding expected growth dividends from investment.
Subjects and keywords (as listed)
- Subject: Debt sustainability analysis, External debt, Government debt management, Oil prices, Prices, Public debt, Public financial management (PFM)
- Keywords: balance of payments, debt relief, Debt sustainability analysis, debt sustainability analysis (DSA), DSA bias, DSA debt projection, DSA projection, fiscal reaction function, forecast error, Global, Government debt management, growth-investment nexus, IMF, IMF DSA database, IMF-World Bank LIC-DSA framework, Low-Income Countries, macroeconomic forecast, Oil prices, projection accuracy, projection bias, projection error, real GDP, sovereign debt, World Bank, WP
IMF Working Paper No. 2017/220 — "Debt Sustainability Analyses for Low-Income Countries: An Assessment of Projection Performance", Henry Mooney and Constance de Soyres, October 30, 2017.
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