Tariff Passthrough at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy
IMF Working Papers, November 1, 2019
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- Tariff Passthrough at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Alberto Cavallo, Gita Gopinath, Brent Neiman, Jenny Tang
- Published: November 1, 2019
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513518381.001
Overview
- Study uses micro data collected at the border and at retailers to characterize effects of recent changes in US trade policy, particularly the tariffs placed on imports from China, on importers, consumers, and exporters.
- Authors: Alberto Cavallo, Gita Gopinath, Brent Neiman, Jenny Tang.
- Publication date: November 1, 2019.
Border-level passthrough and incidence
- The tariffs were almost fully passed through to total prices paid by importers, suggesting the tariffs' incidence has fallen largely on the United States.
- The estimated response of prices to exchange rates is far more muted, implying the recent depreciation of the Chinese renminbi is unlikely to alter the conclusion that tariffs’ incidence fell largely on the United States.
Retail-level effects
- Using product-level data from several large multi-national retailers, the impact of the tariffs on retail prices is more mixed.
- Some affected product categories have seen sharp price increases.
- The difference between affected and unaffected products is generally quite modest, suggesting that retail margins have fallen.
- These retailers' imports increased after the initial announcement of possible tariffs, but before their full implementation, so the intermediate passthrough of tariffs to their prices may not persist.
Exporter responses
- In contrast to foreign exporters facing US tariffs, US exporters lowered their prices on goods subjected to foreign retaliatory tariffs compared to exports of non-targeted goods.
Key publication and metadata
- Pages: 37
- Volume: 2019
- Issue: 238
- Series: Working Paper No. 2019/238
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513518381.001
- Stock No: WPIEA2019238
- ISBN: 9781513518381
- ISSN: 1018-5941
Source: IMF Working Papers — "Tariff Passthrough at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy" by Alberto Cavallo, Gita Gopinath, Brent Neiman, and Jenny Tang, November 1, 2019.
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