Intelligent Export Diversification: An Export Recommendation System with Machine Learning

Author/Editor:

Natasha X Che

Publication Date:

August 28, 2020

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary:

This paper presents a set of collaborative filtering algorithms that produce product recommendations to diversify and optimize a country's export structure in support of sustainable long-term growth. The recommendation system is able to accurately predict the historical trends in export content and structure for high-growth countries, such as China, India, Poland, and Chile, over 20-year spans. As a contemporary case study, the system is applied to Paraguay, to create recommendations for the country's export diversification strategy.

Series:

Working Paper No. 20/175

Frequency:

regular

English

Publication Date:

August 28, 2020

ISBN/ISSN:

9781513555959/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2020175

Format:

Paper

Pages:

46

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