Intelligent Export Diversification: An Export Recommendation System with Machine Learning

IMF Working Papers, August 28, 2020

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Canonical URL: Intelligent Export Diversification: An Export Recommendation System with Machine Learning

Paper presents a set of collaborative filtering algorithms that produce product recommendations to diversify and optimize a country's export structure in support of sustainable long-term growth.
Recommendation system is able to accurately predict the historical trends in export content and structure for high-growth countries over 20-year spans.
Contemporary case study: system applied to Paraguay to create recommendations for the country's export diversification strategy.
Author: Natasha X Che
Date: August 28, 2020

Core method: collaborative filtering algorithms (including KNN implementation / KNN recommender as referenced in keywords).
Validation: system accurately predicts historical export content and structure for high-growth countries such as China, India, Poland, and Chile over 20-year spans.
Technical domains and indicators referenced: comparative advantage, country-product space, RCA export, SITC product lists, product-space literature, export basket composition.

Application: the recommendation system is applied to Paraguay to generate export diversification recommendations and strategy.
Objective: produce product-level recommendations to diversify and optimize Paraguay’s export structure for sustainable long-term growth.

The collaborative filtering recommendation system can reproduce historical export structure evolution for selected high-growth countries (China, India, Poland, Chile) across 20-year spans.
The system generates actionable product recommendations aimed at export diversification and structural optimization.

Use machine-learning-based product recommendations to inform export diversification strategies.
Targeted diversification informed by country-product space and comparative advantage metrics to support sustainable long-term growth.
Apply the system at the country level (example: Paraguay) to prioritize products for export promotion and structural transformation.

Subjects: Comparative advantage, Export diversification, Exports, International trade, Machine learning, National accounts, Personal income, Technology
Keywords: Africa, Caribbean, collaborative filtering, comparative advantage, country-product space, diversification strategy, East Asia, economic growth, export basket, Export diversification, export diversification recommendation, export diversification strategy, export diversificiation, export product, export structure, Exports, Global, international trade, KNN implementation, KNN recommender, machine learning, Personal income, price boom, product name, product-space literature, RCA export, SITC product lists, WP