Another Piece of the Puzzle: Adding Swift Data on Documentary Collections to the Short-Term Forecast of World Trade

Author/Editor:

Narek Ghazaryan ; Alexei Goumilevski ; Joannes Mongardini ; Aneta Radzikowski

Publication Date:

December 17, 2021

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary:

This paper extends earlier research by adding SWIFT data on documentary collections to the short-term forecast of international trade. While SWIFT documentary collections accounted for just over one percent of world trade financing in 2020, they have strong explanatory power to forecast world trade and national trade in selected economies. The informational content from documentary collections helps improve the forecast of world trade, while a horse race with machine learning algorithms shows significant non-linearities between trade and its determinants during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2021/293

Frequency:

regular

English

Publication Date:

December 17, 2021

ISBN/ISSN:

9781616357634/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2021293

Pages:

63

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