Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa Fragile States: Evidence from Panel Estimations
IMF Working Papers, March 18, 2022
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Rodolfo Maino, Drilona Emrullahu
- Published: March 18, 2022
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400204869.001
Summary findings
- Fragile states in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) face challenges to respond to the effects of climate shocks and rising temperatures; fragility is linked to structural weaknesses, government failure, and lack of institutional basic functions.
- A panel fixed effects model (1980 to 2019) found that the effect of a 1◦C rise in temperature decreases income per capita growth in fragile states in SSA by 1.8 percentage points.
- Panel quantile regression models that account for unobserved individual heterogeneity and distributional heterogeneity corroborate that:
- The effects of higher temperature on income per capita growth are negative.
- The impact of income per capita growth on carbon emissions growth is heterogeneous; higher income per capita growth could help reduce carbon emissions growth for high-emitter countries.
- These findings tend to support the hypothesis behind the Environmental Kuznets Curve and the energy consumption growth literature, which postulates that as income increases, emissions increase pari passu until a threshold level of income where emissions start to decline.
Methodology and scope
- Empirical approach: panel fixed effects model and panel quantile regression models that account for unobserved individual heterogeneity and distributional heterogeneity.
- Time coverage: 1980 to 2019.
- Geographic focus: Fragile states in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).
Interpretations and implications
- Climate change poses a measurable negative effect on income per capita growth in fragile SSA states, with a quantified estimate for warming shocks (1◦C → −1.8 percentage points).
- Heterogeneous relationships between income growth and carbon emissions indicate that policy responses may need to be tailored by emitter status; for high-emitter countries, higher income per capita growth could be associated with reduced carbon emissions growth.
- Evidence is consistent with the Environmental Kuznets Curve framework and relevant energy consumption growth literature.
IMF Working Papers. "Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa Fragile States: Evidence from Panel Estimations", Working Paper No. 2022/054 (March 18, 2022).
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