Measuring Quarterly Economic Growth from Outer Space
IMF Working Papers, June 3, 2022
Source details
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- Measuring Quarterly Economic Growth from Outer Space
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Robert C. M. Beyer, Yingyao Hu, Jiaxiong Yao
- Published: June 3, 2022
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400211553.001
Overview and objective
- Presents a novel framework to estimate the elasticity between nighttime lights and quarterly economic activity.
- Identifies the relationship by accounting for varying degrees of measurement errors in nighttime light data across countries.
- Uses a light-adjusted measure of quarterly economic activity to assess data precision and to quantify subnational economic impacts.
Key quantitative findings
- Estimated elasticity between nighttime lights and quarterly economic activity for emerging markets and developing economies: 1.55.
- Elasticity ranges across country groups: from 1.36 to 1.81.
- Paper length: 45 pages.
- Series and identification: Working Paper No. 2022/109; Issue: 109; Volume: 2022.
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400211553.001
- ISBN: 9798400211553
- ISSN: 1018-5941
Robustness and model evidence
- The estimated elasticity is robust to different model specifications.
- Identification strategy explicitly accounts for varying measurement errors in nighttime light data across countries.
Applications and substantive findings
- Higher levels of development, statistical capacity, and voice and accountability are associated with more precise national accounts data when using the light-adjusted measure.
- The elasticity enables quantification of subnational economic impacts using nighttime lights.
- Empirical application to the COVID-19 pandemic period: regions with higher levels of development and population density experienced larger declines in economic activity.
Thematic subjects and keywords
- Subjects: COVID-19, Econometric analysis, GDP measurement, Health, National accounts, Population and demographics, Vector autoregression.
- Keywords: COVID-19, COVID-19., economic measurement, GDP growth, GDP measure, GDP measurement, Global, growth measure, light growth, national accounts, Nighttime lights, quarterly GDP, Summary statistics, Vector autoregression.
Bibliographic and publication metadata
- Authors: Robert C. M. Beyer, Yingyao Hu, Jiaxiong Yao.
- Publication date: June 3, 2022.
- Publication type: IMF Working Papers.
- Stock No: WPIEA2022109.
- Access note: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
Content summarized from the IMF publication page for "Measuring Quarterly Economic Growth from Outer Space".
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- Working Paper