Show Me the Money: Tracking Consumer Spending with Daily Card Transaction Data During the Pandemic
IMF Working Papers, December 2, 2022
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- Show Me the Money: Tracking Consumer Spending with Daily Card Transaction Data During the Pandemic
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Serhan Cevik
- Published: December 2, 2022
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400226915.001
Research question and scope
- Investigates how the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and government interventions affected consumer spending using daily card transaction data in the Baltics.
- Geographic focus: Baltics (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania).
- Data and document details:
- Author: Serhan Cevik
- Date: December 2, 2022
- Pages: 16
- Volume: 2022
- Issue: 235
- Series: Working Paper No. 2022/235
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400226915.001
- Stock No: WPIEA2022235
- ISBN: 9798400226915
- ISSN: 1018-5941
Key findings
- Overall effects on card transactions:
- The number of new COVID-19 infections or deaths has a strongly negative effect on consumer spending measured by debit and credit card transactions.
- Public health measures designed to contain the spread of the pandemic have a negative effect on consumer spending.
- Economic support measures designed to assist businesses and households have a stimulative effect on consumer spending.
- Heterogeneity across spending categories:
- The drop in spending is mostly concentrated in sectors that are restricted by lockdowns and where the risk of infection is higher.
- The stimulative impact of government interventions appears to be more pronounced on goods than on services.
Policy implications and interpretation
- Public health containment measures reduce consumer spending, underscoring a trade-off between infection control and near-term economic activity.
- Economic support measures can partially offset negative spending effects, with stronger impacts on goods consumption than on services.
- Targeting support to sectors restricted by lockdowns and high-infection-risk activities may be important to stabilize consumption patterns.
Subject tags and keywords (as provided)
- Subject: Consumer credit, Consumption, COVID-19, Health, Household consumption, Money, National accounts
- Keywords: Baltics, card transactions, Consumer credit, consumer spending, consumer spending pattern, Consumption, COVID-19, credit card transaction data, credit card transactions, Estonia, euro area, government intervention, Household consumption, household consumption behavior, Latvia, Lithuania, Pandemic, stimulating consumer spending, transition economies
IMF Working Paper No. 2022/235 by Serhan Cevik (December 2, 2022).
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- Working Paper