Panel Nowcasting for Countries Whose Quarterly GDPs are Unavailable
Electronic Access:
Free Download. Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file
Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
Summary:
Quarterly GDP statistics facilitate timely economic assessment, but the availability of such data are limited for more than 60 developing economies, including about 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa as well as more than two-thirds of fragile and conflict-affected states. To address this limited data availablity, this paper proposes a panel approach that utilizes a statistical relationship estimated from countries where data are available, to estimate quarterly GDP statistics for countries that do not publish such statistics by leveraging the indicators readily available for many countries. This framework demonstrates potential, especially when applied for similar country groups, and could provide valuable real-time insights into economic conditions supported by empirical evidence.
Series:
Working Paper No. 2023/158
Subject:
Commodity prices Data collection Economic and financial statistics Economic forecasting Export fluctuations Foreign exchange International trade Prices Purchasing power parity
Frequency:
regular
English
Publication Date:
August 4, 2023
ISBN/ISSN:
9798400245053/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA2023158
Format:
Paper
Pages:
36
Please address any questions about this title to publications@imf.org