Panel Nowcasting for Countries Whose Quarterly GDPs are Unavailable

IMF Working Papers, August 4, 2023

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Canonical URL: Panel Nowcasting for Countries Whose Quarterly GDPs are Unavailable

Quarterly GDP statistics facilitate timely economic assessment, but the availability of such data are limited for more than 60 developing economies, including about 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa as well as more than two-thirds of fragile and conflict-affected states.
The paper proposes a panel approach that utilizes a statistical relationship estimated from countries where data are available to estimate quarterly GDP statistics for countries that do not publish such statistics by leveraging the indicators readily available for many countries.
This framework demonstrates potential, especially when applied for similar country groups, and could provide valuable real-time insights into economic conditions supported by empirical evidence.

Panel nowcasting framework:
- Estimate statistical relationships between quarterly GDP and readily available indicators in countries with published quarterly GDP.
- Apply estimated relationships to countries without published quarterly GDP to generate estimated quarterly GDP statistics.
Emphasis on leveraging indicators that are widely available across countries to facilitate cross-country application of the panel model.
Noted suitability for application within similar country groups to improve performance.

Data availability constraints affect more than 60 developing economies.
The method shows potential to produce timely indicators of economic conditions where official quarterly GDP is unavailable.
Applying the framework to similar country groups enhances its usefulness.
Empirical evidence supports the framework’s ability to provide valuable real-time insights into economic conditions.

Subject: Commodity prices, Data collection, Economic and financial statistics, Economic forecasting, Export fluctuations, Foreign exchange, International trade, Prices, Purchasing power parity
Keywords: annex II, Commodity prices, data availability, data availablity, Data collection, Developing economies, Export fluctuations, fragile and conflict-affected states, GDP, GDP statistic, Global, growth data, low-income countries, nowcasting, panel Nowcasting, Purchasing power parity, sub-Saharan Africa

IMF Working Paper No. 2023/158 — "Panel Nowcasting for Countries Whose Quarterly GDPs are Unavailable" (August 4, 2023)