Specialization, Market Access and Real Income
IMF Working Papers, March 8, 2024
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- Specialization, Market Access and Real Income
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Dominick Bartelme, Ting Lan, Andrei A Levchenko
- Published: March 8, 2024
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400269370.001
Authors and publication
- By Dominick Bartelme, Ting Lan, Andrei A Levchenko
- March 8, 2024
- IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 2024/051, Issue: 051
- Pages: 78
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400269370.001
- ISBN: 9798400269370
- ISSN: 1018-5941
Research question and approach
- Estimates the impact of external demand shocks on real income.
- Utilizes a first order approximation to a wide class of small open economy models that feature sector-level gravity in trade flows to measure foreign shocks and characterize welfare impact in terms of reduced-form elasticities.
- Uses machine learning techniques to group 4-digit manufacturing sectors into a smaller number of clusters.
- Shows that cluster-level elasticities of income with respect to foreign shocks can be estimated using high-dimensional statistical techniques.
- Calibrates a multisector production and trade model with input-output linkages and external economies of scale to match empirical estimates.
Key empirical findings
- Foreign demand shocks in complex intermediate and capital goods have large positive impacts on real income.
- Impacts in other sectors are negligible.
- Countries that specialize in complex intermediate and capital goods enjoy greater gains from increased openness.
- (Small) export subsidies to these sectors are welfare-improving.
Methods and technical features
- Sector-level gravity in trade flows integrated into small open economy first-order approximation.
- Machine learning (k-means clustering referenced in keywords) applied to 4-digit manufacturing sectors to form clusters.
- High-dimensional statistical techniques used to estimate cluster-level elasticities.
- Calibrated multisector model includes input-output linkages and external economies of scale.
Policy implications and recommendations
- Specialization in complex intermediate and capital goods enhances gains from openness.
- Targeted (small) export subsidies to these sectors can improve welfare.
Subjects and keywords
- Subject: Export subsidies, Exports, Income, International trade, National accounts, Trade balance
- Keywords: East Asia, Export subsidies, Exports, gravity, IMF working paper 24/51, Income, investment sales share, k-means clustering, open economy, real income, Trade balance, trade specialization, YYYY International Monetary Fund
Source: IMF Working Paper “Specialization, Market Access and Real Income” (Working Paper No. 2024/051) by Dominick Bartelme, Ting Lan, Andrei A Levchenko, March 8, 2024.
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