A Monetary and Financial Policy Analysis and Forecasting Model for the Philippines (PAMPh2.0)
IMF Working Papers, July 12, 2024
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- A Monetary and Financial Policy Analysis and Forecasting Model for the Philippines (PAMPh2.0)
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Francisco G. Dakila Jr., Dennis M. Bautista, Jasmin E. Dacio, Rosemarie A. Amodia, Sarah Jane A. Castañares, Paul Reimon R. Alhambra, Jan Christopher G. Ocampo, Charles John P. Marquez, Mark Rex S. Romaraog, Philippe D Karam, Daniel Baksa, Jan Vlcek
- Published: July 12, 2024
- Series: IMF Working Papers
Model design and core features
- Transition from a multi-equation econometric model to a modernized system centered on the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM).
- PAMPh2.0 integrates:
- forward-looking projections,
- endogenous monetary policy,
- fiscal and macroprudential considerations,
- labor dynamics.
- Designed to address complex shocks and policy trade-offs to facilitate effective policy-mix determination.
- Supports real-time policy evaluation.
Operationalization and institutional changes
- Implementation embedded within the Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS).
- BSP modernization efforts include:
- refining forecast calendars,
- strengthening communication channels to accommodate operationalization of PAMPh2.0.
Validation, empirical consistency, and model governance
- Detailed validation methods are used to ensure empirical consistency.
- Model design anticipates continued alignment with evolving empirical findings and theoretical insights.
Key publication and document facts
- Publication date: July 12, 2024
- Pages: 116
- Working Paper No.: 2024/148
- ISBN: 9798400284298
- ISSN: 1018-5941
- Keywords: Fiscal Policy, Forecasting and Policy Analysis, Macroprudential Policies, Monetary Policy, Quarterly Projection Model
Source: IMF Working Paper — "A Monetary and Financial Policy Analysis and Forecasting Model for the Philippines (PAMPh2.0)"
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- Working Paper