The Global Impact of AI: Mind the Gap

IMF Working Papers, April 11, 2025

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The Global Impact of AI: Mind the Gap

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Bibliographic details

• Authors: Eugenio M Cerutti, Antonio I Garcia Pascual, Yosuke Kido, Longji Li, Giovanni Melina, Marina Mendes Tavares, Philippe Wingender
• Published: April 11, 2025
• Series: IMF Working Papers
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229008570.001

Core framework and determinants

• AI effects are a function of: (i) countries’ sectoral exposure to AI, (ii) their preparedness to integrate these technologies into their economies, and (iii) their access to essential data and technologies.
• These three aspects are incorporated into a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model of the global economy.

Main findings

• AI will exacerbate cross-country income inequality, disproportionately benefiting advanced economies.
• The estimated growth impact in advanced economies could be more than double that in low-income countries.
• Improvements in AI preparedness and access can mitigate these disparities, but they are unlikely to fully offset them.
• AI-driven productivity gains could reduce the traditional role of exchange rate adjustments due to AI’s large impact in the non-tradable sector—a mechanism described as akin to an inverse Balassa-Samuelson effect.

Analytical approach

• Model used: multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the global economy.
• Focus areas: sectoral exposure, preparedness, and access to data and technologies as channels shaping AI’s cross-country impact.

Policy implications and scenarios

• Enhancing AI preparedness and improving access to essential data and technologies are key mitigation levers.
• Even with improvements in preparedness and access, disparities in growth impacts between advanced economies and low-income countries are likely to persist.

Key statistics and publication metadata

• Authors: Eugenio M Cerutti, Antonio I Garcia Pascual, Yosuke Kido, Longji Li, Giovanni Melina, Marina Mendes Tavares, Philippe Wingender
• Publication date: April 11, 2025
• Series: Working Paper No. 2025/076
• Issue: 076
• Volume: 2025
• Pages: 33
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229008570.001
• ISBN: 9798229008570
• ISSN: 1018-5941
• Stock No: WPIEA2025076

Source: The Global Impact of AI: Mind the Gap, IMF Working Papers (April 11, 2025).

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