Economic Tectonics: A Closer Look at Structural Change and Productivity Trends in the U.S. Economy
IMF Working Papers, August 8, 2025
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- Economic Tectonics: A Closer Look at Structural Change and Productivity Trends in the U.S. Economy
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Belinda Azenui, Sandile Hlatshwayo, Michael Spence
- Published: August 8, 2025
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229018104.001
Key findings: structural change and employment
- The U.S. economy has undergone profound structural transformations in recent decades.
- The share of tradable sector employment, and within it manufacturing employment, declined for several decades and then leveled off in the decade following the GFC.
- By 2023, the nontradable sector accounted for a large majority of employment and real value added.
Productivity trends
- The tradable sector exhibited robust productivity growth of nearly 3 percent.
- Nontradable sectors exhibited far lower productivity growth of 0.7 percent.
- The marked divergence in productivity growth between tradable and nontradable sectors raises concerns about inequality and the sustainability of economic growth.
Analytical focus and scope
- Descriptive analysis of tradable and nontradable sectoral trends.
- Emphasis on labor and labor productivity patterns, including direct labor productivity growth and growth contribution by sector.
- Attention to manufacturing performance within the tradable sector.
Concerns and implications highlighted
- Divergent productivity performance between sectors has implications for inequality.
- Divergent productivity performance raises concerns about the sustainability of aggregate economic growth.
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- Working Paper