Patterns of Invoicing Currency in Global Trade in a Fragmenting World Economy
IMF Working Papers, September 12, 2025
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Emine Boz, Anja Brüggen, Camila Casas, Georgios Georgiadis, Gita Gopinath, Arnaud Mehl
- Published: September 12, 2025
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229024495.001
Overview
- This paper presents the most comprehensive and up-to-date panel dataset on global trade invoicing currency and examines recent pattern shifts with a focus on geopolitical alignment.
- Data cover 132 countries from 1990 to 2023 and include new coverage of the Chinese renminbi.
- The paper documents five key findings that characterize recent invoicing patterns and their geopolitical associations.
Key findings
- The US dollar remains dominant, with global invoicing shares broadly stable.
- Renminbi use has grown steadily and expanded beyond Asia, though it remains modest.
- Countries not geopolitically aligned with the US continue to rely on the dollar, though this reliance has declined in a few key economies.
- Since 2021, the correlation between the use of a given invoicing currency and the geopolitical distance to its issuer has become more negative, reflecting growing polarization.
- There is no robust evidence consistent with effective policy initiatives to reduce dollar reliance in oil exports.
Data and scope
- Coverage: 132 countries.
- Period: 1990 to 2023.
- Dataset includes new coverage of the Chinese renminbi.
- Publication length: Pages: 64.
- Series: Working Paper No. 2025/178.
- Volume: 2025; Issue: 178.
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229024495.001.
- ISBN: 9798229024495.
- ISSN: 1018-5941.
Thematic implications and analysis
- Resilience of dominant currencies: The US dollar’s continued dominance and broadly stable global invoicing shares point to persistent network and liquidity advantages for the dollar.
- Emerging fragmentation: The more negative correlation since 2021 between invoicing-currency use and geopolitical distance to the currency issuer signals increasing polarization in invoicing patterns along geopolitical lines.
- Limited success of active de-dollarization in oil trade: The absence of robust evidence that policy initiatives have reduced dollar reliance in oil exports suggests barriers to rapid shifts in invoicing currency for critical commodity markets.
- Gradual internationalization of the renminbi: Steady growth and geographic expansion of renminbi invoicing indicate a slow but observable trend toward diversification of invoicing currencies, though current shares remain modest.
Subjects and keywords (as stated)
- Subject: Currencies, Currency markets, Exports, Financial markets, Imports, International trade, Money, Oil exports.
- Keywords: Central America, Currencies, Currency markets, dollar reliance, dominant-currency paradigm, euro area, Exports, geopolitical alignment, Global, Imports, invoicing currency, Oil exports, renminbi use, Trade invoicing currency.
Authors and publication date
- By Emine Boz, Anja Brüggen, Camila Casas, Georgios Georgiadis, Gita Gopinath, Arnaud Mehl.
- September 12, 2025.
Source: "Patterns of Invoicing Currency in Global Trade in a Fragmenting World Economy", IMF Working Paper No. 2025/178, September 12, 2025; DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229024495.001.
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- Working Paper