The Impact of Aging and AI on Japan's Labor Market: Challenges and Opportunities
IMF Working Papers, September 19, 2025
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- The Impact of Aging and AI on Japan's Labor Market: Challenges and Opportunities
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Kohei Asao, Haruki Seitani, Ara Stepanyan, TengTeng Xu
- Published: September 19, 2025
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229024747.001
Research scope and methodology
- Uses regression analysis to assess the impact of population aging on:
- labor productivity
- labor shortages
- Investigates occupational-level data to identify:
- complementarity and substitutability of AI in occupational tasks
- skill transferability across occupations
Key findings
- The aging workforce contributes to labor shortages.
- The aging workforce potentially weighs on labor productivity.
- Japanese workers face lower exposure to AI compared to their counterparts in other advanced economies, constraining AI's potential to mitigate labor shortages.
- Disparities in skill requirements across occupations with different AI exposures highlight challenges for worker transitions.
Implications for labor mobility and skills
- The disparities in skill requirements underscore the importance of facilitating labor mobility from displaced jobs to those in demand.
- Skill transferability is a central concern given heterogeneous AI exposure across occupations.
Subject classifications and keywords
- Subject: Aging, Labor, Labor mobility, Labor productivity, Labor shortages, Population and demographics, Production
- Keywords: Aging, artificial intelligence, B. AI, Japan's labor market, labor market, Labor mobility, Labor productivity, Labor shortages, Population aging, sales worker, skill requirement, skill transferability, software investment
Source: IMF Working Paper No. 2025/184, "The Impact of Aging and AI on Japan's Labor Market: Challenges and Opportunities", Kohei Asao; Haruki Seitani; Ara Stepanyan; TengTeng Xu; September 19, 2025.
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- Working Paper