Perceptions of Public Debt and Policy Expectations: Evidence from Cross Country Surveys
IMF Working Papers, September 29, 2025
Source details
- Canonical URL
- Perceptions of Public Debt and Policy Expectations: Evidence from Cross Country Surveys
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Francesco Bianchi, Era Dabla-Norris, Salma Khalid
- Published: September 29, 2025
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229025751.001
Study scope and data
- Surveys of over 27,000 respondents from 13 advanced and emerging market economies.
- Publication: IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 2025/197.
- Pages: 81; Volume: 2025; Issue: 197.
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229025751.001
- ISBN: 9798229025751
- ISSN: 1018-5941
Key findings on perceptions and expectations
- Individuals systematically underestimate debt levels, especially in high-debt countries.
- Respondents believe that the burden of fiscal adjustments will disproportionately affect them.
- Greater lifetime exposure to fiscal consolidation is associated with:
- increased pessimism about future economic prospects;
- diminished trust in government;
- expectations of higher debt;
- expectations of future tax increases and spending cuts;
- expectations of inflation.
- Informing respondents about their country’s debt levels has context-dependent effects:
- reduces expectations of tax increases in stable debt contexts;
- raises expectations of spending cuts in countries with rising debt.
- The influence of debt-level information is moderated by individuals’ past experiences with fiscal consolidation.
Thematic subjects covered
- Expenditure
- Fiscal consolidation
- Fiscal policy
- Government debt management
- Public debt
- Public financial management (PFM)
- Revenue administration
Keywords and methodological notes
- behavioral economics
- lifetime experiences
- debt context
- debt level
- Global
- IMF working papers
- research assistance
Implications highlighted by the study (observations drawn from findings)
- Misperceptions about public debt are widespread and more pronounced where debt is high.
- Personal experience with past fiscal consolidation shapes expectations about future policy, trust in government, and macroeconomic outlook.
- Providing factual information about debt levels can alter policy expectations, but effects depend on the underlying debt trajectory (stable versus rising) and individuals’ fiscal history.
Perceptions of Public Debt and Policy Expectations: Evidence from Cross Country Surveys — IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 2025/197
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- Working Paper