Mauritius QPM: A Quarterly Projection Model for the Bank of Mauritius
IMF Working Papers, October 24, 2025
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Marjorie Pampusa, Ashwin Moheeput, Atish Babboo, Rajlukshmee Tengur, Rideema Cunniah, Sharmeen Gariban, Iaroslav Miller, Shalva Mkhatrishvili, Valeriu Nalban
- Published: October 24, 2025
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229029513.001
Model purpose and structure
- Presents the Mauritius Quarterly Projection Model (QPM), the semi-structural analytical tool underpinning the modernized Forecasting and Policy Analysis System of the Bank of Mauritius (BOM).
- Designed to capture salient features of the domestic economy, including:
- key monetary policy transmission channels; and
- the recently introduced flexible inflation targeting framework.
- Relative to canonical QPM structures, incorporates:
- a parsimonious fiscal block; and
- a labor market block.
Theoretical consistency and empirical performance
- Balances theoretical consistency (coherent shock propagation and policy responses) with empirical reliability.
- Strong in-sample forecasting performance is emphasized as evidence of empirical reliability.
Practical uses and policy relevance
- Operational role within the BOM:
- regular forecasting cycles for production of baseline projections;
- counterfactual simulations; and
- alternative scenarios with corresponding model-based economic narratives.
- Described as a critical component of the BOM’s forward-looking monetary policy formulation.
Key substantive themes and subject coverage
- Subjects listed:
- Exchange rates, Foreign exchange, Inflation, Labor, Labor markets, Output gap, Prices, Production, Wages.
- Keywords included (verbatim):
- Exchange rates, Forecasting and Policy Analysis, Global, IMF working papers, Inflation, inflation targeting framework, labor market block, Labor markets, Mauritius, Mauritius Quarterly Projection Model, Monetary Policy, Output gap, Policy Analysis System of the Bank of Mauritius, Qpm structure, Quarterly Projection Model, Transmission Mechanism, Wages.
Publication and document metadata
- Title: Mauritius QPM: A Quarterly Projection Model for the Bank of Mauritius
- Authors: Marjorie Pampusa, Ashwin Moheeput, Atish Babboo, Rajlukshmee Tengur, Rideema Cunniah, Sharmeen Gariban, Iaroslav Miller, Shalva Mkhatrishvili, Valeriu Nalban
- Date: October 24, 2025
- Series: Working Paper No. 2025/215
- Volume: 2025
- Issue: 215
- Pages: 47
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229029513.001
- Stock No: WPIEA2025215
- ISBN: 9798229029513
- ISSN: 1018-5941
Source: IMF Working Papers landing page for "Mauritius QPM: A Quarterly Projection Model for the Bank of Mauritius" (October 24, 2025).
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