Stablecoins and the Future of Payments: Evidence from Financial Markets
IMF Working Papers, March 20, 2026
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Alexander Copestake, Cage Englander, Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, Germán Villegas-Bauer
- Published: March 20, 2026
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229040648.001
Research question and approach
- Research question: Whether financial market participants, in aggregate, expect stablecoins to play an important role in payments.
- Empirical approach: Using high-frequency variation in stock prices to estimate market responses to U.S. legislation supporting the use of stablecoins in payments.
Key quantitative findings
- The estimated reduction in the market value of listed incumbent payment firms following U.S. legislation supporting stablecoins: 18 percent.
- The estimated dollar-equivalent reduction in market value: approximately $300 billion.
- The estimated impact is larger than that of other recent pro-competitive regulatory shocks.
Heterogeneity in effects
- The negative market-value impact is proportionately larger for incumbents focused on cross-border payments.
- The negative market-value impact is smaller for incumbents protected by network effects.
- The negative market-value impact is smaller for incumbents already offering crypto-related services.
Interpretation and implications
- The observed market reaction is consistent with stablecoins increasing competition in the payments sector.
- Market participants priced a substantial competitive threat from policy support for stablecoins into the valuation of incumbent payment firms, with heterogeneous effects depending on incumbents’ business focus, network protections, and crypto-related offerings.
Source: Stablecoins and the Future of Payments: Evidence from Financial Markets, IMF Working Papers (2026).
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