Linking Climate and Inequality

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Linking Climate and Inequality

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Bibliographic details

• Authors: CELINE GUIVARCH, NICOLAS TACONET, AURELIE MEJEAN
• Published: September 2, 2021
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02637-w

Overview and central thesis

• Policies aimed at slowing warming could be better designed to reduce inequality.
• Unmanaged climate change threatens to reverse recent gains in poverty reduction and could increase inequality between and within countries.
• Actions to curb warming can themselves have unequal effects if they place undue burdens on poor countries and people; such actions should be complemented by measures to offset costs on the poor and vulnerable.

Evidence on impacts and exposure

• A World Bank report estimated that an additional 68 to 135 million people could be pushed into poverty by 2030 because of climate change.
• If the most dire projections of future economic damages hold true, climate change would reverse gains of the past few decades and cause inequality between countries to rise again.
• Since the Industrial Revolution, emissions of greenhouse gases due to human activities have increased from a negligible level to more than 40 billion tons a year.
• These emissions have increased the average annual temperature by about 1 degree Celsius compared with the pre-industrial era.
• Temperature increases have caused glaciers and ice caps melting, sea levels rising, and more frequent and extreme meteorological events (heat waves, droughts), with cascading effects on ecosystems, agricultural yields, human health, and livelihoods.
• Climate risks disproportionately affect the poorest countries and people, who are more exposed and more vulnerable.

Distribution of emissions and historical contributions

• The richest countries represent 16 percent of the world population but almost 40 percent of CO2 emissions.
• The two categories of the poorest countries in the World Bank classification account for nearly 60 percent of the world’s population, but for less than 15 percent of emissions.
• Per capita emissions: about 20 metric tons of CO2-equivalent a person a year in the United States—approximately double the amount per person in the European Union or in China, and almost 10 times the amount in India.
• Contribution to cumulative emissions: United States 25 percent, the European Union 22 percent, China 13 percent, India 3 percent.

Mitigation targets and asymmetric impacts

• Limiting global temperature increase to 1.5°C requires:
  • reaching net zero CO2 emissions by 2050, and
  • reducing global emissions by approximately 50 percent in 2030, compared with 2010 levels.
• Limiting increase to 2°C requires:
  • reaching net zero CO2 emissions by 2070, and
  • reducing global emissions by 25 percent by 2030.
• Every fraction of a degree matters: an increase of 1.5°C would expose 245 million people to a new or aggravated water shortage; this number becomes 490 million at +2°C.
• Mitigation policies can affect energy or food prices and may slow progress in energy access, with disproportionate impacts on the poorest who spend a higher share of income on these goods.

Policy design principles and recommendations

• Mitigation efforts should be shared fairly to serve broader objectives of development, poverty and inequality reduction, air quality improvement, and public health enhancement.
• Rich countries, given greater historical contribution and greater ability to pay, should take ambitious climate action and provide financial transfers to reduce the mitigation burden on poorer countries.
• Within countries, policy design is key:
  • Use redistribution plans for revenues from carbon prices to offset negative impacts on poor people and potentially create net benefits for the poorest.
  • Be aware that concerns about regressive effects can impede policy (example: the French experience after the Yellow Vest movement).
  • Investment in low-carbon technologies or building standards must be designed to avoid unequal effects.
• Adaptation and resilience measures:
  • Implement rules regulating construction in risky areas (flood zoning, land entitlement, building standards).
  • Provide the poorest communities with better health services and new insurance mechanisms.
  • Ensure participation of the poorest in decision-making to avoid underinvestment in actions beneficial to them and to prevent capture by wealthier or political interests.
  • Consider creating adaptation funds to ensure technological transfers from rich countries to poorer ones.
• Negotiations and international cooperation:
  • Increasing countries’ mitigation ambitions is central to COP26 (November 1–12).
  • Success of negotiations is a precondition to limiting inequality-exacerbating climate change; equity and fairness considerations are key to negotiation success.

Integrative conclusion

• Limiting climate change is essential to reduce risks to the poorest and to prevent amplification of existing inequalities.
• Recognize differences in individuals’ and countries’ ability to mitigate emissions and cope with impacts when designing policies.
• Poorly designed policies risk amplifying inequalities; just transitions to low-carbon and more resilient economies can foster more equal societies.

Source: Linking Climate and Inequality, CÉLINE GUIVARCH, NICOLAS TACONET, AURÉLIE MÉJEAN, September 2021.