A More Fragmented World-letter

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Publication: F&D Magazine
Title: A More Fragmented World
Author: GITA BHATT
Date: June 2022
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Central claim: "The rare confluence of geopolitical, economic, and technological forces now confronting the world may reverberate for generations."
Framing: The piece convenes thought leaders to analyze trends amid "a slowing global recovery, rising inflation, deglobalization, and shrinking policymaking space."

The war (Ukraine) is identified as the most immediate risk and is described as:
- thrusting the world into "a fraught period of geopolitical realignment, supply disruptions, food and energy insecurity, and more volatile financial markets."
- capable of shaking "social and political stability in some countries" and weakening the global ability to address climate change.
Specific consequences explored in the issue:
- Sanctions against Russia with "unprecedented consequences" prompting a rethink of sanctions as a weapon of economic warfare (Nicholas Mulder).
- Economic impact of refugees fleeing Ukraine (Giovanni Peri).
- A food crisis that "threatens millions with hunger" (Picture This series).
- Soaring war-induced energy prices framed by some contributors as an opportunity "to spur the transition to green energy."

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas warns of a sudden geopolitical shift revealing "hidden underlying fault lines" and a world fragmenting into "distinct economic blocs with different ideologies, political systems, technology standards, cross-border payment and trade systems, and reserve currencies."
Debate on currency dynamics:
- Some predict geopolitical competition and new technologies will end the dollar's dominance.
- Eswar Prasad argues "the dollar will become more entrenched as the global go-to currency."

Tharman Shanmugaratnam: Greater investment in global public goods is "even more urgent" in a more fragmented world; this will require "unprecedented public-private collaboration and a stronger, more effective multilateralism."
Emphasis on balancing multipolarity and cohesion:
- Priority articulated: to "accommodate a multipolar world without becoming more polarized."

Research and commentary covered elsewhere in the issue:
- Raj Chetty and Nathanial Hendren: increasing upward economic mobility of low-income youth.
- Barry Eichengreen and others: the erosion of trust among the young.
- Noam Angrist: learning lost during the pandemic.
- Eric Hanushek and Ludger Woessmann: the basic skills gap and why meeting the SDGs remains a distant goal.
- Profile: Harvard’s Melissa Dell.
Historical perspective:
- Patricia Clavin: turbulent times can energize actors and ideas that lead to new and better modes of cooperation.

F&D Magazine — A More Fragmented World, GITA BHATT, June 2022.

A More Fragmented World
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