Potential Output in the Kyrgyz Republic: Kyrgyz Republic
Selected Issues Papers, June 18, 2025
Source details
- Canonical URL
- Potential Output in the Kyrgyz Republic: Kyrgyz Republic
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Nasir H Rao, Anvar Muratkhanov, Nihal Haider
- Published: June 18, 2025
- Series: Selected Issues Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229011624.018
Core findings
- The paper estimates potential output growth at 5.3 percent, up from around 4.4 percent prior to the pandemic.
- The persistently positive output gap points to overheating risks.
- Total factor productivity remains below historical averages.
Drivers of potential output change
- Increase in potential output primarily driven by:
- Capital accumulation.
- Labor force expansion.
- Total Factor Productivity (TFP) gains are limited; TFP remains below historical averages.
Methodology
- Utilizes a suite of methodologies:
- Production function.
- State-space models.
- Statistical filters.
Risks and implications
- Persistently positive output gap indicates overheating risks.
- Recent structural shifts and external shocks considered include:
- The pandemic.
- The regional conflict.
Policy recommendations
- Need for counter-cyclical policies.
- Need for structural reforms to address TFP shortfalls and overheating risks.
Publication and metadata
- Authors: Nasir H Rao, Anvar Muratkhanov, Nihal Haider
- Date: June 18, 2025
- Pages: 17
- Volume: 2025
- Issue: 081
- Series: Selected Issues Paper No. 2025/081
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229011624.018
- Stock No: SIPEA2025081
- ISBN: 9798229011624
- ISSN: 2958-7875
- Related institutional note: Our eLibrary offers over 25,000 IMF publications in multiple formats.
- Citation format (Chicago) shown on the page includes accessed date: accessed 9/17/2026.
Source: Potential Output in the Kyrgyz Republic: Kyrgyz Republic (Selected Issues Papers), IMF, June 18, 2025.
Content in this bundle
- Sipea2025081