{ "title": "Two-speed Global Recovery Continues", "publication": "IMF Blog, January 25, 2011", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2011/01/25/two-speed-global-recovery-continues", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2011/01/25/two-speed-global-recovery-continues", "overlayPath": "/en/blogs/articles/2011/01/25/two-speed-global-recovery-continues/index.md", "summary": "Global growth is set to slow as fiscal stimulus and restocking of inventories—previous drivers of activity—are \"essentially over.\"", "sections": [ { "heading": "The outlook", "content": "- Global growth is set to slow as fiscal stimulus and restocking of inventories—previous drivers of activity—are \"essentially over.\"\n- Global growth projection: 4.4 percent in 2011, down from 5 percent in 2010.\n- Emerging and developing countries:\n - Gross Domestic Product increase projected at 6.5 percent in 2011, compared with 7.1 percent in 2010.\n - Most have \"few scars from the crisis\"; some (e.g., South Africa) benefit from strong commodity prices.\n - In many emerging market countries, output is now back to potential and the policy challenge is to avoid overheating.\n- Advanced countries:\n - Growth anticipated at 2.5 percent in 2011, compared to 3 percent in 2010.\n - Growth at this pace is \"barely enough to dent high unemployment\" and raises social concerns.\n - Advanced countries still need to work off pre-crisis excesses and fully repair financial systems; many face fiscal challenges, \"most pressingly in the euro area.\"\n- Global imbalances:\n - Little progress is being made.\n - U.S. growth expected to be based on domestic demand while net exports deteriorate; risk of replicating pre-crisis growth dynamics with public dissaving replacing low private saving.\n - Without fundamental changes in China, the current account surplus is expected to rebound from its lower level this year." }, { "heading": "Tensions and risks", "content": "- Four main short-term tensions and risks stemming from the uneven recovery:\n 1. Rising commodity prices\n - Actual prices remain below pre-crisis peaks.\n - Food price increases driven mainly by one time supply-side factors; effects should wind down over the course of 2011.\n - Oil price pressures come from the demand side: \"In the second half of last year, unexpected consumption growth of 2 percent resulted in a price increase of roughly 10 percent.\"\n - Strong world growth likely to be associated with further increases, with important implications for emerging and developing economies.\n 2. Capital flows into emerging markets\n - Inflows have increased but for most countries remain below previous peaks and have been receding in the last couple of months.\n - The recent decrease suggests that the U.S. Fed’s QE2 \"may not be having the impact that many emerging markets anticipated.\"\n - These flows raise policy choices on currency appreciation, macroeconomic policy, macro prudential tools, and capital controls.\n 3. Risks in \"peripheral\" Europe\n - Macro and fiscal adjustment in some countries is likely to be long and painful.\n - Markets worry that implementation could go off track, leading to concerns about sovereign debt and banks, and reverse spillovers from banks to sovereigns.\n 4. Risks from continuing global imbalances\n - If rebalancing does not take place, absent an improvement in net exports, U.S. growth likely to remain subdued, complicating withdrawal of fiscal stimulus.\n - If stimulus is not withdrawn, long-term fiscal challenges will intensify; either way, problems will emerge later for the U.S. and the rest of the world." }, { "heading": "Three-pronged policy strategy", "content": "- A three-pronged strategy is necessary to reduce risks and strengthen the global recovery:\n 1. Emerging and developing countries\n - Macroeconomic policies need to shift to avoid overheating.\n 2. \"Peripheral\" Europe\n - Urgent measures include clarifying banks' exposures, backed by recapitalization schemes if and where needed (as outlined in the IMF’s update of global financial stability).\n - Importance of \"give time to time\": back fiscal and macroeconomic commitments with deeds, provide adequate multilateral funding if and where needed, and ensure ECB liquidity to remove panic scenarios.\n 3. Reducing global imbalances\n - For China and other surplus countries: structural reforms and currency appreciation.\n - For the U.S. and other advanced countries: fiscal consolidation and credible medium term fiscal adjustment plans (many advanced countries, including the U.S., \"have not yet put in place a credible medium term fiscal adjustment plan,\" and this is urgently needed).\n - Dealing with global imbalances is framed as \"essential to achieve a sustained, lasting, world recovery.\"\n\nOlivier Blanchard — January 25, 2011\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- 012511aa\n - 012511aa (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\"}\n- 全球经济继续双速复苏, 2011 年1 月25 日\n - 全球经济继续双速复苏, 2011 年1 月25 日 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - 全球经济继续双速复苏, 2011 年1 月25 日 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 二極化が続く世界経済の回復\n - 二極化が続く世界経済の回復 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - 二極化が続く世界経済の回復 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- По-прежнему два темпа глобального экономического подъема\n - По-прежнему два темпа глобального экономического подъема (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - По-прежнему два темпа глобального экономического подъема (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- our latest World Economic Outlook update\n- update of global financial stability\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2011/01/25/two-speed-global-recovery-continues" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/blogs/articles/2011/01/25/two-speed-global-recovery-continues/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/blogs/articles/2011/01/25/two-speed-global-recovery-continues/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/blogs/articles/2011/01/25/two-speed-global-recovery-continues/bundle-manifest.json)", "Authors: Olivier Blanchard", "Published: January 25, 2011", "Global growth is set to slow as fiscal stimulus and restocking of inventories—previous drivers of activity—are \"essentially over.\"", "Global growth projection: 4.4 percent in 2011, down from 5 percent in 2010.", "Emerging and developing countries:", "Advanced countries:", "Global imbalances:", "Four main short-term tensions and risks stemming from the uneven recovery:", "A three-pronged strategy is necessary to reduce risks and strengthen the global recovery:", "**012511aa**", "**全球经济继续双速复苏, 2011 年1 月25 日**", "**二極化が続く世界経済の回復**", "**По-прежнему два темпа глобального экономического подъема**", "[our latest World Economic Outlook update](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/update/01/index.htm)", "[update of global financial stability](http://www.imf.org/External/Pubs/FT/fmu/eng/2011/01/index.htm)" ], "related": [ { "title": "012511aa", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "http://www.imf.org/external/arabic/np/vc/2011/012511aa.pdf", "binary": { "path": "/external/arabic/np/vc/2011/012511aa.pdf", "mime": "text/html; charset=utf-8" } }, { "title": "全球经济继续双速复苏, 2011 年1 月25 日", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "http://www.imf.org/external/chinese/np/vc/2011/012511ac.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/external/chinese/np/vc/2011/012511ac.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/external/chinese/np/vc/2011/012511ac.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "二極化が続く世界経済の回復", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "http://www.imf.org/external/japanese/np/vc/2011/012511j_ob.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/external/japanese/np/vc/2011/012511j_ob.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/external/japanese/np/vc/2011/012511j_ob.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "По-прежнему два темпа глобального экономического подъема", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "http://www.imf.org/external/russian/np/vc/2011/012511ar.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/external/russian/np/vc/2011/012511ar.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/external/russian/np/vc/2011/012511ar.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } } ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/blogs/articles/2011/01/25/two-speed-global-recovery-continues/index.md", "json": "/en/blogs/articles/2011/01/25/two-speed-global-recovery-continues/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/blogs/articles/2011/01/25/two-speed-global-recovery-continues/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-17T23:41:33.655Z" }