{
  "title": "Sins of Emission and Omission in Durban",
  "publication": "IMF Blog, January 9, 2012",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2012/01/09/sins-of-emission-and-omission-in-durban",
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  "summary": "Without serious efforts to reduce greenhouse gases, scientists predict that by the end of this century global temperatures could be \"2.5 to 6.0OC higher than a couple of hundred years ago.\"",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Climate risks and context",
      "content": "- Without serious efforts to reduce greenhouse gases, scientists predict that by the end of this century global temperatures could be \"2.5 to 6.0OC higher than a couple of hundred years ago.\"\n- Potential impacts noted: more heatwaves, more droughts, higher sea levels, more violent storms and consequent effects on livelihoods, especially for farmers in poorer countries.\n- Durban negotiations: some progress, but two major omissions identified—little progress on carbon pricing and financing for climate action, and insufficient recognition of economic tools to tackle climate problems."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Carbon pricing: rationale and mechanics",
      "content": "- Carbon pricing policies are described as \"the sina que non ... of a coherent mitigation policy.\"\n- Effectiveness:\n  - Carbon pricing is \"easily the most effective instruments for reducing CO2 emissions—the pre-dominant greenhouse gas—and providing incentives for the clean technology investments\" needed to stabilize climate.\n  - Over \"90 percent of global CO2 emissions are still not covered by pricing schemes.\"\n- Revenue potential example:\n  - U.S. CO2 emissions currently about \"5.5 billion metric tons.\"\n  - Pricing U.S. CO2 emissions at \"$25 per ton\" could raise in just one decade about the same revenue as \"the entire aspirational target of the recent United States congressional deficit reduction ‘super committee.’\"\n- Implementation challenges:\n  - Consumers face higher energy prices; energy-intensive firms (e.g., steel and aluminum producers) become less competitive.\n  - Compensatory measures for affected groups, especially the most vulnerable, are likely important for effective implementation.\n- Design and offset options:\n  - Scale back pre-existing energy taxes that become redundant with carbon pricing; in many advanced countries, reducing pre-existing excise taxes on electricity consumption and vehicle purchases could offset most or all of the burden on electricity prices and motorists.\n  - Adjust broader fiscal systems: example—Australia plans to use revenues from planned carbon pricing to substantially increase personal income tax thresholds (allowing people to earn more before entering the first tax bracket).\n  - Border tax adjustments: levy fees on imports from non-carbon-taxing countries to address lost competitiveness, noting these need careful design to be consistent with international trade obligations."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Climate change finance: sources and proposals",
      "content": "- Advanced countries committed to raising \"$100 billion a year\" for climate adaptation and mitigation in developing countries, but the source of these funds is unclear.\n- Options evaluated by G20 and IMF include many domestic revenue sources (taxes on electricity, fuels, income, capital, financial transactions).\n- Carbon pricing favored:\n  - Carbon pricing both raises revenue and tackles emissions directly; seen as \"the best bet.\"\n  - Political/fiscal realism: difficult to imagine governments parting with much revenue from domestic sources in the current fiscal environment.\n- International aviation and maritime fuels:\n  - \"Carbon charging for international aviation and maritime fuels might be more promising,\" since national governments do not yet have a clear claim on this tax base.\n  - Rationale: about \"3 percent of global CO2 emissions result from flying or shipping,\" and currently there are no excise taxes analogous to those for motor fuels.\n  - Broader fiscal rationale: international passenger tickets are generally not subject to value added taxes.\n  - Design issues and equity:\n    - Charges should be coordinated internationally.\n    - Developing countries may need compensation to encourage participation.\n    - Options include letting countries keep revenues they collect from aviation fuel charges or receiving rebates for maritime charges in proportion to trade shares."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Insuring against catastrophe and technological contingencies",
      "content": "- Consideration of \"last resort\" technologies: filters for sucking CO2 out of the atmosphere, techniques for deflecting incoming sunlight, and similar options.\n- These technologies could be useful in the very unlikely event that future warming imperils the planet, but they raise \"all sorts of tough issues.\"\n- The longer policy omissions delay emissions pricing, the greater the (albeit described as \"very small\") increase in the probability of such a catastrophe.\n\nIan Parry — January 9, 2012 (Sins of Emission and Omission in Durban)\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- iMFdirect 博客: 德班的排放和疏漏之罪, 2012 年 1 月 9 日\n  - iMFdirect 博客: 德班的排放和疏漏之罪, 2012 年 1 月 9 日 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - iMFdirect 博客: 德班的排放和疏漏之罪, 2012 年 1 月 9 日 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 110411a\n  - 110411a (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 110411a (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- IMF content unit 110411b\n  - IMF content unit 110411b (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - IMF content unit 110411b (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- economic challenges of climate change\n- the importance of carbon pricing\n- Group of Twenty advanced and emerging economies asked the IMF, along with others, to evaluate the options\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2012/01/09/sins-of-emission-and-omission-in-durban"
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    "Authors: Ian Parry",
    "Published: January 9, 2012",
    "Without serious efforts to reduce greenhouse gases, scientists predict that by the end of this century global temperatures could be \"2.5 to 6.0OC higher than a couple of hundred years ago.\"",
    "Potential impacts noted: more heatwaves, more droughts, higher sea levels, more violent storms and consequent effects on livelihoods, especially for farmers in poorer countries.",
    "Durban negotiations: some progress, but two major omissions identified—little progress on carbon pricing and financing for climate action, and insufficient recognition of economic tools to tackle climate problems.",
    "Carbon pricing policies are described as \"the sina que non ... of a coherent mitigation policy.\"",
    "Effectiveness:",
    "Revenue potential example:",
    "Implementation challenges:",
    "Design and offset options:",
    "Advanced countries committed to raising \"$100 billion a year\" for climate adaptation and mitigation in developing countries, but the source of these funds is unclear.",
    "Options evaluated by G20 and IMF include many domestic revenue sources (taxes on electricity, fuels, income, capital, financial transactions).",
    "Carbon pricing favored:",
    "International aviation and maritime fuels:",
    "Consideration of \"last resort\" technologies: filters for sucking CO2 out of the atmosphere, techniques for deflecting incoming sunlight, and similar options.",
    "These technologies could be useful in the very unlikely event that future warming imperils the planet, but they raise \"all sorts of tough issues.\"",
    "The longer policy omissions delay emissions pricing, the greater the (albeit described as \"very small\") increase in the probability of such a catastrophe.",
    "**iMFdirect 博客: 德班的排放和疏漏之罪, 2012 年 1 月 9 日**",
    "**110411a**",
    "**IMF content unit 110411b**",
    "[economic challenges of climate change](http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/enviro.htm)",
    "[the importance of carbon pricing](http://blogs.imf.org/2009/11/23/climate-change%e2%80%94some-simple-and-quite-convenient-truths/)",
    "[Group of Twenty advanced and emerging economies asked the IMF, along with others, to evaluate the options](http://www.imf.org/external/np/g20/index.htm)"
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