{
  "title": "Still Some Hurdles On The Fiscal Path",
  "publication": "IMF Blog, October 9, 2013",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2013/10/09/still-some-hurdles-on-the-fiscal-path",
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  "summary": "Author: Martine Guerguil",
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    {
      "heading": "Overview",
      "content": "- Author: Martine Guerguil\n- Date: October 9, 2013\n- Theme: Global fiscal challenges five years after the crisis, focusing on advanced economies' remaining consolidation tasks, mounting fiscal pressures in emerging market economies, and the role of taxation and quasi-fiscal operations."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Advanced economies: progress and the remaining challenge",
      "content": "- Context:\n  - \"Five years into the crisis, the fiscal landscape remains challenging.\"\n  - The IMF’s Fiscal Monitor finds deficit-cutting efforts and the first signs of recovery reduced fiscal stress in many advanced economies, but \"debt ratios often remain at historical peaks.\"\n- Key findings:\n  - \"With the average deficit now lower by more than 4 percentage points of GDP compared to the height of the crisis, most advanced economies are well on their way to meeting their medium-term fiscal objectives.\"\n  - Countries that need to make the most progress on deficit reduction are \"almost two-thirds of the way there\"—with the exception of Japan.\n- Fiscal difficulty index:\n  - An index of \"fiscal difficulty\" was created to gauge the relative difficulty of fiscal adjustment under various scenarios.\n  - The index examines:\n    - The difficulty in reaching a given primary surplus over a given period of time (vertical axis of the chart).\n    - The difficulty in maintaining that surplus for another given period of time (horizontal axis of the chart).\n  - Insight from the index:\n    - For most countries, \"maintaining budget surpluses for the extended period of time required to bring debt ratios down is the most challenging, as 'adjustment fatigue' creeps in.\"\n    - This maintenance challenge is \"particularly relevant in Europe, where economic growth remains weak.\""
    },
    {
      "heading": "Emerging market economies: mounting budget pressures",
      "content": "- Drivers of rising fiscal vulnerabilities:\n  - Deterioration in the interest rate and growth environment.\n    - \"Growth forecasts have been revised down by as much as 1¾ percentage points on average.\"\n    - \"Borrowing costs have increased, especially in Asia and in the Middle East and North Africa.\"\n  - Widening deficits and increased debt ratios as automatic stabilizers operated and fiscal stimulus was used to contain the crisis impact.\n  - Quasi-fiscal activities added vulnerabilities in some countries:\n    - Examples cited include \"subsidized lending by state-owned banks or off-budget activities by local governments and other public institutions.\"\n- Variations across emerging markets:\n  - Some countries: high debt and deficits → \"pressing consolidation needs.\"\n  - Others: rising risks → emphasis on \"initiating the consolidation process.\"\n  - Others: remain in a \"relatively comfortable fiscal position.\"\n- Consequences:\n  - \"Overall, the scope for short-term discretionary fiscal action has but evaporated.\"\n  - \"Continued demands for more and better public services in the developing world raise significant medium-term challenges.\""
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy emphasis and next steps",
      "content": "- Priority actions implied by the analysis:\n  - Sustain budget surpluses long enough to bring debt ratios down, recognizing the risk of \"adjustment fatigue.\"\n  - Address quasi-fiscal operations to reduce hidden fiscal vulnerabilities (e.g., subsidized lending by state-owned banks, off-budget local government activities).\n  - For emerging markets, begin or accelerate consolidation where appropriate, tailored to each country's fiscal position and risks.\n  - Improve tax systems: \"countries must more than ever make sure they tax as efficiently, fairly, and effectively as they can.\"\n- Forward-looking note:\n  - \"The second part of the Fiscal Monitor looks in detail at how that can be done—and that will be the topic of another blog in a few days.\"\n\nSource: Still Some Hurdles On The Fiscal Path (Martine Guerguil), October 9, 2013.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- iMFdirect博客: 财政道路仍存坎坷, 2013 年10 月9 日\n  - iMFdirect博客: 财政道路仍存坎坷, 2013 年10 月9 日 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - iMFdirect博客: 财政道路仍存坎坷, 2013 年10 月9 日 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 財政の道に依然として立ちはだかるいくつかの障害; マーチン・ギルゲル,  iMFdirect ブログ, 2013年10月9日掲載\n  - 財政の道に依然として立ちはだかるいくつかの障害; マーチン・ギルゲル,  iMFdirect ブログ, 2013年10月9日掲載 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 財政の道に依然として立ちはだかるいくつかの障害; マーチン・ギルゲル,  iMFdirect ブログ, 2013年10月9日掲載 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Fiscal Monitor: Taxing Times; October 2013\n  - Fiscal Monitor: Taxing Times; October 2013 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Fiscal Monitor: Taxing Times; October 2013 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 45762CH01Text.indd\n  - 45762CH01Text.indd (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 45762CH01Text.indd (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- На бюджетном пути сохраняются препятствия, Мартина Гергиль\n  - На бюджетном пути сохраняются препятствия, Мартина Гергиль (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - На бюджетном пути сохраняются препятствия, Мартина Гергиль (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/difficulty-of-long-term-fiscal-consolidation.jpg\n- https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/debt-and-cyclically-adjusted-primary-deficit.jpg\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2013/10/09/still-some-hurdles-on-the-fiscal-path"
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    "Authors: Martine Guerguil",
    "Published: October 9, 2013",
    "Author: Martine Guerguil",
    "Date: October 9, 2013",
    "Theme: Global fiscal challenges five years after the crisis, focusing on advanced economies' remaining consolidation tasks, mounting fiscal pressures in emerging market economies, and the role of taxation and quasi-fiscal operations.",
    "Context:",
    "Key findings:",
    "Fiscal difficulty index:",
    "Drivers of rising fiscal vulnerabilities:",
    "Variations across emerging markets:",
    "Consequences:",
    "Priority actions implied by the analysis:",
    "Forward-looking note:",
    "**iMFdirect博客: 财政道路仍存坎坷, 2013 年10 月9 日**",
    "**財政の道に依然として立ちはだかるいくつかの障害; マーチン・ギルゲル,  iMFdirect ブログ, 2013年10月9日掲載**",
    "**Fiscal Monitor: Taxing Times; October 2013**",
    "**45762_CH01_Text.indd**",
    "**На бюджетном пути сохраняются препятствия, Мартина Гергиль**",
    "[https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/difficulty-of-long-term-fiscal-consolidation.jpg](https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/difficulty-of-long-term-fiscal-consolidation.jpg)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/debt-and-cyclically-adjusted-primary-deficit.jpg](https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/debt-and-cyclically-adjusted-primary-deficit.jpg)"
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