{ "title": "Recovery Strengthening, but Much Work Remains", "publication": "IMF Blog, January 21, 2014", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2014/01/21/recovery-strengthening-but-much-work-remains", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2014/01/21/recovery-strengthening-but-much-work-remains", "overlayPath": "/en/blogs/articles/2014/01/21/recovery-strengthening-but-much-work-remains/index.md", "summary": "Tribute: remembrance of Wabel Abdallah, IMF resident representative in Afghanistan, killed in the terrorist attack in Kabul.", "sections": [ { "heading": "Opening remarks and context", "content": "- Tribute: remembrance of Wabel Abdallah, IMF resident representative in Afghanistan, killed in the terrorist attack in Kabul.\n- Overall framing: update of the World Economic Outlook distilled into three main messages." }, { "heading": "Main messages from the World Economic Outlook update", "content": "- Recovery strengthening:\n - World growth: increase from 3% in 2013 to 3.7% in 2014.\n - Advanced economies: increase from 1.3% in 2013 to 2.2% in 2014.\n - Emerging market and developing economies: increase from 4.7% in 2013 to 5.1% in 2014.\n- Recovery largely anticipated:\n - Forecast revision for world growth in 2014: revised by just 0.1% relative to the October forecast.\n - Underlying reasons: diminishing drag from fiscal consolidation, slow healing of the financial system, decreasing uncertainty.\n- Recovery remains weak and uneven:\n - Stronger in the US than in Europe; stronger in the Euro core than in Southern Europe.\n - Unemployment remains much too high in most advanced economies.\n - Downside risks remain." }, { "heading": "Regional tour d’horizon — key forecasts and observations", "content": "- United States:\n - US growth forecast: 2.8% for 2014, compared to 1.9% in 2013.\n - Drivers: strong private demand; December budget agreement limits fiscal consolidation in 2014.\n - Monetary policy: remains very accommodative; focus turning to monetary policy exit; expectation that the policy rate will rise in 2015.\n- Japan:\n - Japan grew at 1.7% in 2013; forecast is 1.7% for 2014.\n - Source of growth: largely fiscal stimulus and exports.\n - Policy challenge: need for consumption and investment to take over; challenge of achieving enough fiscal consolidation to reassure debt holders without slowing the recovery.\n- Europe (Euro core and UK):\n - UK growth forecast: 2.4% for 2014.\n - Germany growth forecast: 1.6% for 2014.\n - France growth forecast: 0.9% for 2014.\n - Conditions: public debts on sustainable paths in core; fiscal consolidation slowing; favorable credit conditions; confidence remains low in France.\n- Southern Europe:\n - 2014: forecast positive growth, but fragile.\n - Dynamics: strong exports versus weak internal demand driven by loops among weak activity, weak banks, weak firms, and fiscal consolidation.\n - Policy implication: sustained growth requires cutting those loops and relying on both external and internal demand.\n- Emerging market and developing economies:\n - Growth: lower than in the past but expected to remain high.\n - External influences: benefit from higher advanced-economy growth; face tighter financial conditions as US monetary policy normalizes.\n - IMF view: for most countries, higher advanced growth will dominate tighter financial conditions.\n - Domestic challenge highlighted: China needs to contain building risks in the financial sector without excessively slowing growth." }, { "heading": "Risks to the outlook and policy priorities", "content": "- Monetary policy normalization risks:\n - Normalizing policy in advanced economies could produce complex and sometimes disruptive capital movements across countries.\n - Emerging market economies with weak macro frameworks are most vulnerable.\n - Required responses: clear communication by advanced-economy central banks; stronger domestic policies in stressed emerging market economies.\n- Deflation risk in the Euro area:\n - Baseline: forecasts for low but positive inflation in the Euro area.\n - Risk scenario: inflation could turn into deflation, which would raise real interest rates, increase public and private debt burdens, lower demand and growth, and generate further deflationary pressure.\n - Policy priorities to avoid deflation: accommodative monetary policy by the ECB; strengthening of banks’ balance sheets.\n - Operational priority: carrying out the balance sheet assessment and stress test process now under way is highlighted as possibly the most important short-term task facing the Euro area.\n- Summary judgment:\n - Recovery is indeed strengthening, but much work remains to address unevenness, financial vulnerabilities, and macroeconomic risks.\n\nSource: “Recovery Strengthening, but Much Work Remains,” Olivier Blanchard, January 21, 2014.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- 新兴市场需采取更多行动，以继续带动全球增长; iMFdirect博客; 2014年1月22日\n - 新兴市场需采取更多行动，以继续带动全球增长; iMFdirect博客; 2014年1月22日 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - 新兴市场需采取更多行动，以继续带动全球增长; iMFdirect博客; 2014年1月22日 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Подъем набирает обороты, но еще многое предстоит сделать; 21 января 2014 года\n - Подъем набирает обороты, но еще многое предстоит сделать; 21 января 2014 года (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Подъем набирает обороты, но еще многое предстоит сделать; 21 января 2014 года (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- عربي\n- Wabel Abdallah\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2014/01/21/recovery-strengthening-but-much-work-remains" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/blogs/articles/2014/01/21/recovery-strengthening-but-much-work-remains/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/blogs/articles/2014/01/21/recovery-strengthening-but-much-work-remains/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/blogs/articles/2014/01/21/recovery-strengthening-but-much-work-remains/bundle-manifest.json)", "Authors: Olivier Blanchard", "Published: January 21, 2014", "Tribute: remembrance of Wabel Abdallah, IMF resident representative in Afghanistan, killed in the terrorist attack in Kabul.", "Overall framing: update of the World Economic Outlook distilled into three main messages.", "Recovery strengthening:", "Recovery largely anticipated:", "Recovery remains weak and uneven:", "United States:", "Japan:", "Europe (Euro core and UK):", "Southern Europe:", "Emerging market and developing economies:", "Monetary policy normalization risks:", "Deflation risk in the Euro area:", "Summary judgment:", "**新兴市场需采取更多行动，以继续带动全球增长; iMFdirect博客; 2014年1月22日**", "**Подъем набирает обороты, но еще многое предстоит сделать; 21 января 2014 года**", "[عربي](http://blog-montada.imf.org/?p=2686)", "[Wabel Abdallah](http://www-stg-ext.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2014/NEW012214A.htm)" ], "related": [ { "title": "新兴市场需采取更多行动，以继续带动全球增长; iMFdirect博客; 2014年1月22日", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "http://www.imf.org/external/chinese/np/blog/2014/012214c.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/external/chinese/np/blog/2014/012214c.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/external/chinese/np/blog/2014/012214c.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Подъем набирает обороты, но еще многое предстоит сделать; 21 января 2014 года", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "http://www.imf.org/external/russian/np/blog/2014/012114r.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/external/russian/np/blog/2014/012114r.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/external/russian/np/blog/2014/012114r.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } } ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/blogs/articles/2014/01/21/recovery-strengthening-but-much-work-remains/index.md", "json": "/en/blogs/articles/2014/01/21/recovery-strengthening-but-much-work-remains/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/blogs/articles/2014/01/21/recovery-strengthening-but-much-work-remains/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-08-28T03:37:19.446Z" }