{
  "title": "China PMI Batters Global Markets…Are you kidding me?",
  "publication": "IMF Blog, February 3, 2014",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2014/02/03/china-pmi-batters-global-marketsare-you-kidding-me",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2014/02/03/china-pmi-batters-global-marketsare-you-kidding-me",
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  "summary": "Media accounts linking a small decline in China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) to a global market slide are likely overstated.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Main argument",
      "content": "- Media accounts linking a small decline in China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) to a global market slide are likely overstated.\n- China’s PMI is a useful—but not definitive—indicator for growth; January and February PMI data are hard to interpret because of the Lunar “Chinese” New Year.\n- The PMI decline crossed the expansion/contraction threshold but was “rather small.”"
    },
    {
      "heading": "IMF forecast and growth projections",
      "content": "- The IMF raised its forecast for China’s growth in 2014 from a “7¼ percent” projection made in October to “7½ percent.”\n- Published 2013 data showed “7.7 percent” annual growth, which matched IMF expectations.\n- The IMF reaffirms the forecast for “7½ percent” growth in 2014.\n- The IMF projects a moderate slowing in China’s economy, specifically “a slowing of domestic demand—over ½ percentage point—partly offset by rising net exports.”\n- Embedded in IMF forecasts is a slowing of growth by “0.2 percentage points.”\n- The IMF estimates a plausible long-run “fastest sustainable growth rate” of around “6 percent on average between now and 2030.”"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Drivers and interpretation",
      "content": "- Domestic demand momentum and an improved outlook in advanced economies could lift growth above current forecasts.\n- Government implementation of a recently announced economic blueprint is expected to moderate domestic demand.\n- Containing risks from rapidly expanding credit and rising local government debt will put the economy on sounder footing but will be “a modest drag on domestic activity.”\n- Rising net exports, fueled by the global recovery, are expected to partly offset weaker domestic demand."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy implications and assessment",
      "content": "- The modest slowdown is characterized as “welcome” as China shifts toward more inclusive, green, and sustainable growth.\n- The tradeoff of slightly lower near-term domestic activity is viewed as positive for securing long-term growth."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key statistics and figures",
      "content": "- IMF membership: “191 countries.”\n- 2013 annual growth: “7.7 percent.”\n- IMF 2014 forecast (reaffirmed): “7½ percent.”\n- Prior October projection for 2014: “7¼ percent.”\n- Projected slowing embedded in forecasts: “0.2 percentage points.”\n- Slowing of domestic demand buried in forecasts: “over ½ percentage point.”\n- Estimated fastest sustainable growth rate to 2030: “6 percent on average between now and 2030.”\n\nSource: IMFBlog article \"China PMI Batters Global Markets…Are you kidding me?\" by Steven Barnett, February 3, 2014.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- 中国的采购经理人指数（PMI）冲击全球市场…开什么玩笑; iMFdirect博客； 2014年2月3日\n  - 中国的采购经理人指数（PMI）冲击全球市场…开什么玩笑; iMFdirect博客； 2014年2月3日 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 中国的采购经理人指数（PMI）冲击全球市场…开什么玩笑; iMFdirect博客； 2014年2月3日 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/steve-barnett.jpg\n- Steven Barnett\n- China: Why Less is More”\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2014/02/03/china-pmi-batters-global-marketsare-you-kidding-me"
    }
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    "Authors: rising net exports fueled by the global recovery.",
    "Published: February 3, 2014",
    "Media accounts linking a small decline in China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) to a global market slide are likely overstated.",
    "China’s PMI is a useful—but not definitive—indicator for growth; January and February PMI data are hard to interpret because of the Lunar “Chinese” New Year.",
    "The PMI decline crossed the expansion/contraction threshold but was “rather small.”",
    "The IMF raised its forecast for China’s growth in 2014 from a “7¼ percent” projection made in October to “7½ percent.”",
    "Published 2013 data showed “7.7 percent” annual growth, which matched IMF expectations.",
    "The IMF reaffirms the forecast for “7½ percent” growth in 2014.",
    "The IMF projects a moderate slowing in China’s economy, specifically “a slowing of domestic demand—over ½ percentage point—partly offset by rising net exports.”",
    "Embedded in IMF forecasts is a slowing of growth by “0.2 percentage points.”",
    "The IMF estimates a plausible long-run “fastest sustainable growth rate” of around “6 percent on average between now and 2030.”",
    "Domestic demand momentum and an improved outlook in advanced economies could lift growth above current forecasts.",
    "Government implementation of a recently announced economic blueprint is expected to moderate domestic demand.",
    "Containing risks from rapidly expanding credit and rising local government debt will put the economy on sounder footing but will be “a modest drag on domestic activity.”",
    "Rising net exports, fueled by the global recovery, are expected to partly offset weaker domestic demand.",
    "The modest slowdown is characterized as “welcome” as China shifts toward more inclusive, green, and sustainable growth.",
    "The tradeoff of slightly lower near-term domestic activity is viewed as positive for securing long-term growth.",
    "IMF membership: “191 countries.”",
    "2013 annual growth: “7.7 percent.”",
    "IMF 2014 forecast (reaffirmed): “7½ percent.”",
    "Prior October projection for 2014: “7¼ percent.”",
    "Projected slowing embedded in forecasts: “0.2 percentage points.”",
    "Slowing of domestic demand buried in forecasts: “over ½ percentage point.”",
    "Estimated fastest sustainable growth rate to 2030: “6 percent on average between now and 2030.”",
    "**中国的采购经理人指数（PMI）冲击全球市场…开什么玩笑; iMFdirect博客； 2014年2月3日**",
    "[https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/steve-barnett.jpg](https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/steve-barnett.jpg)",
    "[Steven Barnett](http://blogs.imf.org/bloggers/steven-barnett/)",
    "[China: Why Less is More”](http://blogs.imf.org/2013/10/29/chinas-growth-why-less-is-more/)"
  ],
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      "title": "中国的采购经理人指数（PMI）冲击全球市场…开什么玩笑; iMFdirect博客； 2014年2月3日",
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