{
  "title": "If China Sneezes, Africa Can Now Catch a Cold",
  "publication": "IMF Blog, March 20, 2014",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2014/03/20/if-china-sneezes-africa-can-now-catch-a-cold",
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  "summary": "China has become a major development partner of sub-Saharan Africa: the subcontinent’s largest single trading partner and a key investor and provider of aid.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary of the relationship",
      "content": "- China has become a major development partner of sub-Saharan Africa: the subcontinent’s largest single trading partner and a key investor and provider of aid.\n- The relationship is reinforced by China’s reorientation toward new markets (including Africa) and by the natural-resource intensity of China’s economic growth combined with sub-Saharan Africa’s natural resource abundance.\n- Links expose sub-Saharan African countries to potentially negative spillovers from China if China’s growth slows or the composition of its demand changes."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Trade concentration and composition",
      "content": "- Overall, sub-Saharan Africa has maintained a slight trade deficit with China.\n- Fewer than half of the African countries have a trade surplus with China.\n- China’s trade with sub-Saharan Africa is highly concentrated: five countries—Angola, South Africa, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Republic of Congo, and Equatorial Guinea—account for about 75 percent of the subcontinent’s exports to China.\n- Africa’s exports to China are heavily concentrated in primary products, mainly oil:\n  - By 2008, mineral fuel and related materials accounted for about 45 percent of all sub-Saharan African exports to China.\n  - By 2008, mineral fuel and related materials accounted for more than 84 percent of exports to China if South African exports are excluded."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Empirical findings on spillovers from Chinese investment",
      "content": "- Analysis uses panel data covering 1995-2011 to measure how changes in Chinese investment affected exports from Africa.\n- A 1 percentage point change in China’s real domestic fixed asset investment growth would alter sub-Saharan Africa’s export growth rate on average by 0.6 percentage point.\n- The intensity of this effect varies by country group defined by natural-resource endowments:\n  - Resource-thin countries: changes in Chinese investment do a little.\n  - Non-oil resource countries: changes in Chinese investment have an appreciable effect.\n  - Oil-exporting countries: changes in Chinese investment have a much larger effect.\n- For the top five resource-rich sub-Saharan African countries ranked by exports to China as a share of GDP (Angola, South Africa, the Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, the Democratic Republic of the Congo), a 1 percentage point change in China’s domestic investment growth would be accompanied by a 0.8 percentage point change in their export growth rate."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Mechanisms of the China effect",
      "content": "- Indirect channel: Chinese investment affects global growth and commodity prices, which in turn affect African exports.\n- Direct channel: Bilateral trading links—especially in primary products—transmit Chinese demand shocks quickly to resource-rich African exporters."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Implications",
      "content": "- The chart referenced in the source shows which African countries will experience the biggest spillover effects from changes in China’s economic performance, with oil exporters most exposed.\n- Regions and countries most dependent on China for export demand—especially oil exporters—face the largest risk if China’s growth slows or demand composition shifts.\n\nSource: If China Sneezes, Africa Can Now Catch a Cold — Paulo Drummond, Estelle Xue Liu, March 20, 2014\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- 中国一打喷嚏，非洲现在就可能得感冒; 作者：Paulo Drummond和Estelle Xue Liu; iMFDirect博客;2014年3月20日\n  - 中国一打喷嚏，非洲现在就可能得感冒; 作者：Paulo Drummond和Estelle Xue Liu; iMFDirect博客;2014年3月20日 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 中国一打喷嚏，非洲现在就可能得感冒; 作者：Paulo Drummond和Estelle Xue Liu; iMFDirect博客;2014年3月20日 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/africatrade.jpg\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2014/03/20/if-china-sneezes-africa-can-now-catch-a-cold"
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    "Authors: Paulo Drummond, Estelle Xue Liu",
    "Published: March 20, 2014",
    "China has become a major development partner of sub-Saharan Africa: the subcontinent’s largest single trading partner and a key investor and provider of aid.",
    "The relationship is reinforced by China’s reorientation toward new markets (including Africa) and by the natural-resource intensity of China’s economic growth combined with sub-Saharan Africa’s natural resource abundance.",
    "Links expose sub-Saharan African countries to potentially negative spillovers from China if China’s growth slows or the composition of its demand changes.",
    "Overall, sub-Saharan Africa has maintained a slight trade deficit with China.",
    "Fewer than half of the African countries have a trade surplus with China.",
    "China’s trade with sub-Saharan Africa is highly concentrated: five countries—Angola, South Africa, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Republic of Congo, and Equatorial Guinea—account for about 75 percent of the subcontinent’s exports to China.",
    "Africa’s exports to China are heavily concentrated in primary products, mainly oil:",
    "Analysis uses panel data covering 1995-2011 to measure how changes in Chinese investment affected exports from Africa.",
    "A 1 percentage point change in China’s real domestic fixed asset investment growth would alter sub-Saharan Africa’s export growth rate on average by 0.6 percentage point.",
    "The intensity of this effect varies by country group defined by natural-resource endowments:",
    "For the top five resource-rich sub-Saharan African countries ranked by exports to China as a share of GDP (Angola, South Africa, the Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, the Democratic Republic of the Congo), a 1 percentage point change in China’s domestic investment growth would be accompanied by a 0.8 percentage point change in their export growth rate.",
    "Indirect channel: Chinese investment affects global growth and commodity prices, which in turn affect African exports.",
    "Direct channel: Bilateral trading links—especially in primary products—transmit Chinese demand shocks quickly to resource-rich African exporters.",
    "The chart referenced in the source shows which African countries will experience the biggest spillover effects from changes in China’s economic performance, with oil exporters most exposed.",
    "Regions and countries most dependent on China for export demand—especially oil exporters—face the largest risk if China’s growth slows or demand composition shifts.",
    "**中国一打喷嚏，非洲现在就可能得感冒; 作者：Paulo Drummond和Estelle Xue Liu; iMFDirect博客;2014年3月20日**",
    "[https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/africatrade.jpg](https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/africatrade.jpg)"
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      "title": "中国一打喷嚏，非洲现在就可能得感冒; 作者：Paulo Drummond和Estelle Xue Liu; iMFDirect博客;2014年3月20日",
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