{ "title": "Legacies, Clouds and Uncertainties", "publication": "IMF Blog, October 7, 2014", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2014/10/07/legacies-clouds-and-uncertainties", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2014/10/07/legacies-clouds-and-uncertainties", "overlayPath": "/en/blogs/articles/2014/10/07/legacies-clouds-and-uncertainties/index.md", "summary": "We forecast world growth to be 3.3% in 2014, down 0.1% from our July forecast, and 3.8% in 2015, down 0.2% from our July forecast.", "sections": [ { "heading": "Global outlook and headline projections", "content": "- We forecast world growth to be 3.3% in 2014, down 0.1% from our July forecast, and 3.8% in 2015, down 0.2% from our July forecast.\n- The recovery continues, but it is weak and uneven.\n- Economic evolutions are becoming more differentiated across countries due to differing impacts of past legacies and lowered expectations about future potential growth." }, { "heading": "Two dominant forces shaping outcomes", "content": "- Legacy effects from the financial crisis: debt overhangs, high unemployment, and other after‑effects continue to weigh on demand and balance sheets.\n- Anticipated weaker futures: downward revisions of potential growth are reducing confidence, demand, and growth today.\n- These two forces operate with varying intensity across countries, increasing differentiation in growth trajectories." }, { "heading": "Advanced economies: heterogeneity and constraints", "content": "- United States and the United Kingdom are leaving the financial crisis behind and achieving decent growth; even so, potential growth is lower than in the early 2000s.\n- Japan is growing, but faces major macroeconomic and fiscal challenges due to high public debt inherited from the past and very low potential growth going forward.\n- The euro area nearly stalled earlier this year, even in the core; both legacies (primarily in the south) and low potential growth nearly everywhere are slowing recovery." }, { "heading": "Emerging markets: adjustments and divergence", "content": "- For emerging market economies as a whole, potential growth is now forecast to be 1.5% lower than it was in 2011.\n- China is maintaining high growth despite the end of a housing and a credit boom; rebalancing is likely to imply slightly lower growth, viewed as a healthy development.\n- India has recovered from its relative slump and, thanks in part to policy and a renewal of confidence, growth is expected to exceed 5% again.\n- Russia faced low growth before the Ukraine crisis due to uncertain investment prospects; the crisis has made it worse.\n- Brazil is weighed down by uncertain prospects and low investment.\n- Low income developing countries continue to do remarkably well despite a slowdown in commodity prices; we forecast their growth rate to b 6.1% in 2014, 6.5 in 2015." }, { "heading": "Downside risks", "content": "- Extended period of low interest rates has led to some search for yield; financial markets may be too complacent about the future.\n - Macroprudential tools are the right instruments, but there is concern they may not be up to the task.\n- Geopolitical risks have become more relevant:\n - So far, little evidence that the Ukraine crisis has had measurable effects beyond affected countries and immediate neighbors.\n - Turmoil in the Middle East has not substantially affected the level or volatility of energy prices to date, but risks of future effects remain.\n- A stalling of the recovery in the euro area is a material risk: demand could weaken further and low inflation could turn into deflation. This is not the baseline, but would be a major global issue if it occurred." }, { "heading": "Policy implications and recommendations", "content": "- Advanced economies must address both legacies of the crisis and low potential growth:\n - While improving bank balance sheets has been a major focus, debt overhang of firms and households remains an issue in a number of countries.\n - So long as demand remains weak, monetary accommodation and low interest rates remain essential.\n- Fiscal policy stance in the euro area:\n - Low spreads on sovereign bonds suggest past fiscal consolidation has built credibility; this credibility should not be threatened.\n - There is scope for fiscal policy to sustain the recovery: infrastructure investment, even if debt financed, may be justified to help demand in the short run and supply in the medium run.\n - Being ready to do more if the risk of stalling materializes is important.\n- Raise potential growth where possible:\n - Higher potential growth would ease fiscal and financial challenges, but increasing potential output is a tall order and expectations should remain realistic.\n - Specific structural reforms in most countries can help; the challenge is to identify which reforms are most needed and politically feasible rather than relying on the generic mantra of “structural reforms.”\n- Overarching policy challenge:\n - Reestablish confidence through a clear plan to deal with both the legacies of the crisis and the challenge of low potential growth.\n\nSource: Olivier Blanchard, \"Legacies, Clouds and Uncertainties\", October 7, 2014.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- 危机遗留问题、阴影和不确定性; iMFdirect博客; 2014年10月7日\n - 危机遗留问题、阴影和不确定性; iMFdirect博客; 2014年10月7日 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - 危机遗留问题、阴影和不确定性; iMFdirect博客; 2014年10月7日 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 遺産、暗雲、不確実性: オリビエ・ブランシャール iMFdirect ブログ 2014年10月7日掲載\n - 遺産、暗雲、不確実性: オリビエ・ブランシャール iMFdirect ブログ 2014年10月7日掲載 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - 遺産、暗雲、不確実性: オリビエ・ブランシャール iMFdirect ブログ 2014年10月7日掲載 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Наследие кризиса, угрозы, неопределенность; Оливье Бланшар; Блог iMFdirect; 7 октября 2014 года\n - Наследие кризиса, угрозы, неопределенность; Оливье Бланшар; Блог iMFdirect; 7 октября 2014 года (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Наследие кризиса, угрозы, неопределенность; Оливье Бланшар; Блог iMFdirect; 7 октября 2014 года (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- World Economic Outlook\n- United States\n- United Kingdom\n- Japan\n- euro area\n- emerging market\n- China\n- India\n- https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/weotbl102014500.jpg\n- infrastructure investment\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2014/10/07/legacies-clouds-and-uncertainties" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/blogs/articles/2014/10/07/legacies-clouds-and-uncertainties/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/blogs/articles/2014/10/07/legacies-clouds-and-uncertainties/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/blogs/articles/2014/10/07/legacies-clouds-and-uncertainties/bundle-manifest.json)", "Authors: Olivier Blanchard", "Published: October 7, 2014", "We forecast world growth to be 3.3% in 2014, down 0.1% from our July forecast, and 3.8% in 2015, down 0.2% from our July forecast.", "The recovery continues, but it is weak and uneven.", "Economic evolutions are becoming more differentiated across countries due to differing impacts of past legacies and lowered expectations about future potential growth.", "Legacy effects from the financial crisis: debt overhangs, high unemployment, and other after‑effects continue to weigh on demand and balance sheets.", "Anticipated weaker futures: downward revisions of potential growth are reducing confidence, demand, and growth today.", "These two forces operate with varying intensity across countries, increasing differentiation in growth trajectories.", "United States and the United Kingdom are leaving the financial crisis behind and achieving decent growth; even so, potential growth is lower than in the early 2000s.", "Japan is growing, but faces major macroeconomic and fiscal challenges due to high public debt inherited from the past and very low potential growth going forward.", "The euro area nearly stalled earlier this year, even in the core; both legacies (primarily in the south) and low potential growth nearly everywhere are slowing recovery.", "For emerging market economies as a whole, potential growth is now forecast to be 1.5% lower than it was in 2011.", "China is maintaining high growth despite the end of a housing and a credit boom; rebalancing is likely to imply slightly lower growth, viewed as a healthy development.", "India has recovered from its relative slump and, thanks in part to policy and a renewal of confidence, growth is expected to exceed 5% again.", "Russia faced low growth before the Ukraine crisis due to uncertain investment prospects; the crisis has made it worse.", "Brazil is weighed down by uncertain prospects and low investment.", "Low income developing countries continue to do remarkably well despite a slowdown in commodity prices; we forecast their growth rate to b 6.1% in 2014, 6.5 in 2015.", "Extended period of low interest rates has led to some search for yield; financial markets may be too complacent about the future.", "Geopolitical risks have become more relevant:", "A stalling of the recovery in the euro area is a material risk: demand could weaken further and low inflation could turn into deflation. This is not the baseline, but would be a major global issue if it occurred.", "Advanced economies must address both legacies of the crisis and low potential growth:", "Fiscal policy stance in the euro area:", "Raise potential growth where possible:", "Overarching policy challenge:", "**危机遗留问题、阴影和不确定性; iMFdirect博客; 2014年10月7日**", "**遺産、暗雲、不確実性: オリビエ・ブランシャール iMFdirect ブログ 2014年10月7日掲載**", "**Наследие кризиса, угрозы, неопределенность; Оливье Бланшар; Блог iMFdirect; 7 октября 2014 года**", "[World Economic Outlook](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/index.htm)", "[United States](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2014/new072314a.htm)", "[United Kingdom](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2014/car072814a.htm)", "[Japan](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2014/car073114a.htm)", "[euro area](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2014/car071414a.htm)", "[emerging market](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2014/pol061214a.htm)", "[China](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2014/CAR073014A.htm)", "[India](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2014/car022014a.htm)", "[https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/weo_tbl_102014_500.jpg](https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/weo_tbl_102014_500.jpg)", "[infrastructure investment](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2014/RES093014A.htm)" ], "related": [ { "title": "危机遗留问题、阴影和不确定性; iMFdirect博客; 2014年10月7日", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "http://www.imf.org/external/chinese/np/blog/2014/100714c.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/external/chinese/np/blog/2014/100714c.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/external/chinese/np/blog/2014/100714c.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "遺産、暗雲、不確実性: オリビエ・ブランシャール iMFdirect ブログ 2014年10月7日掲載", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "http://www.imf.org/external/japanese/np/blog/2014/100714j.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/external/japanese/np/blog/2014/100714j.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/external/japanese/np/blog/2014/100714j.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Наследие кризиса, угрозы, неопределенность; Оливье Бланшар; Блог iMFdirect; 7 октября 2014 года", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "http://www.imf.org/external/russian/np/blog/2014/100714r.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/external/russian/np/blog/2014/100714r.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/external/russian/np/blog/2014/100714r.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } } ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/blogs/articles/2014/10/07/legacies-clouds-and-uncertainties/index.md", "json": "/en/blogs/articles/2014/10/07/legacies-clouds-and-uncertainties/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/blogs/articles/2014/10/07/legacies-clouds-and-uncertainties/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-08-28T02:33:23.829Z" }