{
  "title": "The African Century",
  "publication": "IMF Blog, August 3, 2015",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2015/08/03/the-african-century",
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  "summary": "Authors: Antoinette M. Sayeh, Abebe Aemro Selassie",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Population and demographics",
      "content": "- Authors: Antoinette M. Sayeh, Abebe Aemro Selassie\n- Date: August 3, 2015\n- Key observation: Most countries in sub-Saharan Africa are on the cusp of a demographic transition—the years when the share of young and old in the population declines and those in working age range (15-64 years) increases.\n- Channel to higher incomes: An increasing share of working age population can raise per capita incomes as more workforce employed implies greater economic output and labor income per household.\n- Dependency on policy: Much of the demographic dividend will depend on the quality of economic and social policies."
    },
    {
      "heading": "The global dimension",
      "content": "- By 2030 or so, sub-Saharan Africa’s contribution to the increase in global labor force will exceed that from the rest of the world combined.\n- Global entrants into working age are forecast to decline from around 2 percent annually between 1980-2000 to 0.5 percent or so for 2030-2050.\n- For economies accounting for over 60 percent of current global GDP (G7 countries, China and Russia), the working age population had peaked by 2010.\n- Policy implication: Integrating Africa’s labor force into global supply chains could substantially benefit the global economy given aging populations elsewhere; this should rise in priority in international economic discourse across private and public sectors."
    },
    {
      "heading": "The regional angle",
      "content": "- Mechanisms to harness the dividend:\n  - Increase in number and quality of human capital: a growing labor force that is better educated and healthier.\n  - Build physical capital: upgrading public infrastructure and continued private capital formation.\n  - Higher aggregate saving: saving rates tend to be higher for working age individuals, allowing more funding of investment.\n  - Increased female labor force participation: declining fertility rates tend to be associated with higher female labor force participation, which supports higher and more inclusive growth.\n- Policy focus areas:\n  - Remove legal and institutional impediments to female participation.\n  - Ensure the economic environment does not hamper saving and that savings are efficiently allocated to productive investments."
    },
    {
      "heading": "What experience says",
      "content": "- Comparative lessons:\n  - East Asia captured a larger demographic dividend than Latin America due to:\n    - Faster demographic transition aided by policies encouraging couples to reduce childbearing and investment in human capital.\n    - Flexible labor markets that enabled reallocation of workers toward labor intensive manufacturing with higher productivity.\n    - Financial development that channeled increased saving to investment.\n    - Intense structural transformation, faster increases in average productivity, and integration in global trade, bringing foreign investment and technology transfers."
    },
    {
      "heading": "In a nutshell (findings and policy recommendations)",
      "content": "- Key constraints to address urgently:\n  - Gaps in infrastructure, mainly electricity and transport.\n  - Gaps in skilled human capital: improving health and education systems.\n- Policies to promote:\n  - Foster saving and investment—including from abroad.\n  - Enhance competitiveness to boost exports and generate employment for young job-market entrants.\n- Outlook: Contingent on these policies, the authors’ view is that the demographic transition will leave sub-Saharan Africa in a much stronger position by boosting savings, investment, and thus raising economic growth.\n\nSource: The African Century, Antoinette M. Sayeh and Abebe Aemro Selassie, August 3, 2015.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa; April 2015\n  - Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa; April 2015 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa; April 2015 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2015/08/03/the-african-century"
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    "Authors: Antoinette M Sayeh, Abebe Aemro Selassie",
    "Published: August 3, 2015",
    "Authors: Antoinette M. Sayeh, Abebe Aemro Selassie",
    "Date: August 3, 2015",
    "Key observation: Most countries in sub-Saharan Africa are on the cusp of a demographic transition—the years when the share of young and old in the population declines and those in working age range (15-64 years) increases.",
    "Channel to higher incomes: An increasing share of working age population can raise per capita incomes as more workforce employed implies greater economic output and labor income per household.",
    "Dependency on policy: Much of the demographic dividend will depend on the quality of economic and social policies.",
    "By 2030 or so, sub-Saharan Africa’s contribution to the increase in global labor force will exceed that from the rest of the world combined.",
    "Global entrants into working age are forecast to decline from around 2 percent annually between 1980-2000 to 0.5 percent or so for 2030-2050.",
    "For economies accounting for over 60 percent of current global GDP (G7 countries, China and Russia), the working age population had peaked by 2010.",
    "Policy implication: Integrating Africa’s labor force into global supply chains could substantially benefit the global economy given aging populations elsewhere; this should rise in priority in international economic discourse across private and public sectors.",
    "Mechanisms to harness the dividend:",
    "Policy focus areas:",
    "Comparative lessons:",
    "Key constraints to address urgently:",
    "Policies to promote:",
    "Outlook: Contingent on these policies, the authors’ view is that the demographic transition will leave sub-Saharan Africa in a much stronger position by boosting savings, investment, and thus raising economic growth.",
    "**Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa; April 2015**"
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