{
  "title": "China's Housing Market: Defying the Odds?",
  "publication": "IMF Blog, February 1, 2016",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2016/02/01/chinas-housing-market-defying-the-odds",
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  "summary": "Publication: iMFdirect",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Context",
      "content": "- Publication: iMFdirect\n- Date: February 1, 2016\n- Theme: Concerns about the stability of housing markets given historical precedents and potential systemic financial-sector spillovers."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Comparative historical examples",
      "content": "- Japan: house prices rose by about 40 percent during the mid-1980s; the collapse was followed by a ‘lost decade’ in which incomes did not grow and house prices fell by over 40 percent.\n- United States: house prices increased by about 30 percent between 2001 and 2006; their collapse was followed by the global financial crisis of 2008-2009."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings from the Shenzhen conference (organized by the IMF in cooperation with the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, and Princeton University)",
      "content": "- Aggregate trend:\n  - House prices in China have continued their long upward march over the past decade (Chart 1), despite some reversals.\n- City-level heterogeneity:\n  - The steady increase in China’s house prices at the national level masks tremendous variation at the city level.\n  - There is substantial heterogeneity across cities in the balance between housing supply and demand.\n  - At one end, housing supply has outpaced demand in the interior part of the country.\n  - At the other end, housing demand has outpaced supply in most major eastern markets, such as Beijing, Hangzhou, Shanghai, and Shenzhen.\n- Valuation risk:\n  - Markets such as Beijing, despite their strong measured fundamentals, should be considered somewhat risky because homes there trade at very high multiples of rent."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Implications and risks",
      "content": "- History shows that housing collapses can be very costly and can lead to broader financial-sector collapse and high government cleanup costs.\n- The identified heterogeneity implies differentiated risks across cities rather than uniform national exposure.\n- High price-to-rent multiples in major eastern markets signal elevated valuation risk even where fundamentals appear strong.\n\nSource: iMFdirect, February 1, 2016.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- conference\n- Global Housing Watch\n- here\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2016/02/01/chinas-housing-market-defying-the-odds"
    }
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    "Authors: iMFdirect",
    "Published: February 1, 2016",
    "Publication: iMFdirect",
    "Date: February 1, 2016",
    "Theme: Concerns about the stability of housing markets given historical precedents and potential systemic financial-sector spillovers.",
    "Japan: house prices rose by about 40 percent during the mid-1980s; the collapse was followed by a ‘lost decade’ in which incomes did not grow and house prices fell by over 40 percent.",
    "United States: house prices increased by about 30 percent between 2001 and 2006; their collapse was followed by the global financial crisis of 2008-2009.",
    "Aggregate trend:",
    "City-level heterogeneity:",
    "Valuation risk:",
    "History shows that housing collapses can be very costly and can lead to broader financial-sector collapse and high government cleanup costs.",
    "The identified heterogeneity implies differentiated risks across cities rather than uniform national exposure.",
    "High price-to-rent multiples in major eastern markets signal elevated valuation risk even where fundamentals appear strong.",
    "[conference](http://www.imf.org/external/np/seminars/eng/2015/HousingChina/index.htm)",
    "[Global Housing Watch](http://www.imf.org/external/research/housing/index.htm)",
    "[here](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2016/RES012916A.htm)"
  ],
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}