## Africa Pausing

_IMF Blog, May 31, 2016_

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**Canonical URL:** [Africa Pausing](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2016/05/31/africa-pausing)

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Jeff Hayden
- Published: May 31, 2016

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### Overview
- Title: Africa Pausing
- Author: Jeff Hayden
- Date: May 31, 2016
- Context: Strong performance by many African economies over the past two decades led some commentators to coin the term “Africa Rising.”
- Noted milestone: The term “Africa Rising” graced the cover of TIME magazine in December 2012.
- Broad narrative: Beginning in the mid-1990s, many—but certainly not all—countries in sub-Saharan Africa energized their economies, achieving in recent years some of the world’s highest growth and improved living standards, health care, and other key services.
- Current inflection: The past year has been harsh, with a sharp slowdown attributed to several factors.

### Causes of the recent slowdown
- Slumping commodity prices.
- Softer global economic conditions.
- Drought in some countries.
- China slowing as it retools its economy, affecting African trade and business partners.
- Result: A wave of pessimism and questions about whether the “Africa Rising” story has come to an end.
- Comparative severity: Described as the toughest conditions in a decade.

### Resilience and outlook
- Central claim: Many countries are well positioned to ride out the current storm and that strong growth will resume, albeit with a pause or two along the way.
- Factors improving resilience (per overview by Steven Radelet):
  - Marked improvements in governance.
  - Emergence of more adroit leaders and economic managers.
  - Better economic and social policies.
- Radelet’s conditional outlook: The long-term outlook for growth is solid for countries that:
  - Diversify their economies.
  - Increase competitiveness.
  - Further strengthen their institutions of governance.
- Antoinette Sayeh (IMF’s African Department) argues:
  - Underlying drivers of growth over the past decade still persist.
  - A reset of monetary and fiscal policies can help reignite sustainable growth in the region.
- Time horizon language: Growth is “likely to slow in the next few years” but underlying drivers remain.

### Sources of future growth highlighted
- Digital technologies that increase access to financing.
- Regional economic agreements that foster closer business ties.
- Increased women’s participation in the workforce.
- A focus on improving infrastructure and health care.
- Sector spotlight: Nigeria’s film industry, “Nollywood,” identified as one of the world’s largest film industries in terms of number of films produced.

### Other content in the same issue
- Article on U.S. growth by Robert J. Gordon, referencing his book The Rise and Fall of American Growth and concerns about a long period of muted growth in the United States.
- Profile of economist Dani Rodrik by Prakash Loungani.

*Source: Africa Pausing — Jeff Hayden, May 31, 2016.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2016/05/31/africa-pausing_