{ "title": "We Need Forceful Policies to Avoid the Low-Growth Trap", "publication": "IMF Blog, September 1, 2016", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2016/09/01/we-need-forceful-policies-to-avoid-the-low-growth-trap", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2016/09/01/we-need-forceful-policies-to-avoid-the-low-growth-trap", "overlayPath": "/en/blogs/articles/2016/09/01/we-need-forceful-policies-to-avoid-the-low-growth-trap/index.md", "summary": "2016 will be the fifth consecutive year with global GDP growth below its long-term average of 3.7 percent (1990-2007), and 2017 may well be the sixth.", "sections": [ { "heading": "Overview: persistent weak global growth", "content": "- 2016 will be the fifth consecutive year with global GDP growth below its long-term average of 3.7 percent (1990-2007), and 2017 may well be the sixth.\n- Not since the early 1990s—when ripple effects from economic transition caused growth to slow—has the world economy been so weak for so long.\n- The political pendulum threatens to swing against economic openness, and without forceful policy actions, the world could suffer from disappointing growth for a long time." }, { "heading": "Advanced-economy dynamics and supply-side constraints", "content": "- Real growth in advanced economies is running almost a full percentage point below the average of 1990-2007.\n- Key factors:\n - Crisis legacies such as private and public sector debt overhangs, and impaired balance sheets of financial institutions, leading to stubbornly weak demand.\n - Prolonged demand weakness risks harming long-term growth by reducing firms’ production capacity, driving workers out of the labor force, and eroding critical skills.\n - Weak demand depresses trade and contributes to disappointing productivity growth.\n - On the supply side, slowing productivity and adverse demographic trends have been weighing on potential growth—a trend that started before the global financial crisis.\n - Low expectations of future growth reduce firms’ incentives to invest, hurting both productivity and short-term growth prospects." }, { "heading": "Emerging-economy dynamics", "content": "- Emerging economies have been slowing, but this is often a return to historical norms after an exceptionally fast pace in the past decade.\n- Developments are diverse across countries:\n - In 2015, GDP in two of the four largest emerging economies—China and India—grew between 7-7½ percent.\n - In 2015, GDP contracted by close to 4 percent in the other two—Russia and Brazil.\n- Common factors affecting emerging economies:\n - Rebalancing of the Chinese economy from investment to consumption, and from external demand to domestic demand; the transition is costly for trading partners that rely on Chinese demand and can trigger financial volatility.\n - The large decline in commodity prices, which has reduced disposable income for many commodity exporters and requires difficult, protracted adjustments; in some cases a change in the growth model is needed." }, { "heading": "Inequality, politics, and reform fatigue", "content": "- Weak global growth interacting with rising inequality is contributing to a political climate where reforms stall and countries adopt inward-looking policies.\n- In a broad cross-section of advanced economies, incomes for the top 10 percent increased by about 40 percent in the past 20 years, while growing only very modestly at the bottom.\n- Inequality has also increased in many emerging economies, though strong general income growth has sometimes offset impacts on the poor." }, { "heading": "Policy agenda to avoid a low-growth trap", "content": "- Forceful policy actions are needed. Key elements of a global growth agenda:\n 1. Demand support in economies operating below capacity\n - Monetary policy has largely carried this role, but is increasingly stretched as several central banks are operating at or close to the effective lower bound for policy rates.\n - Where there is fiscal space, record-low interest rates make for an excellent time to boost public investment and upgrade infrastructure.\n 2. Structural reforms\n - Countries are not doing nearly enough: two years ago, G20 members pledged reforms that would lift their collective GDP by an additional two percent over 5 years.\n - In the most recent assessment, the measures implemented to date are worth at most half this amount—so more reforms are urgent.\n - IMF research shows reforms are most effective when prioritized along countries’ reform gaps and take into account the level of development and position in the business cycle.\n 3. Reinvigorating trade\n - Reduce trade costs and roll back temporary trade barriers.\n - Policymakers should help those adversely affected through re-training, skill building, and assisting occupational and geographic mobility.\n - Curtailing free trade risks stalling an engine that has brought unprecedented welfare gains around the world over many decades.\n 4. Ensuring more broadly shared growth\n - Taxes and benefits should bolster incomes at the low end and reward work.\n - In many emerging economies, stronger social safety nets are needed.\n - Investments in education can raise both productivity and the prospects of low-wage earners." }, { "heading": "Risk and the need for political courage", "content": "- Implementing this agenda takes political courage; inaction risks reversing global economic integration and stalling an engine that has created and spread wealth around the globe.\n- This risk is judged too large to take.\n\nChristine Lagarde, September 1, 2016\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- 我们需采取强有力的政策，避免陷入低增长陷阱; iMFdirect博客; 2016年9月1日\n - 我们需采取强有力的政策，避免陷入低增长陷阱; iMFdirect博客; 2016年9月1日 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - 我们需采取强有力的政策，避免陷入低增长陷阱; iMFdirect博客; 2016年9月1日 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 低成長の罠を回避するためには、強力な政策が必要; クリスティーヌ・ラガルド iMFdirect ブログ2016年9月1日掲載\n - 低成長の罠を回避するためには、強力な政策が必要; クリスティーヌ・ラガルド iMFdirect ブログ2016年9月1日掲載 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - 低成長の罠を回避するためには、強力な政策が必要; クリスティーヌ・ラガルド iMFdirect ブログ2016年9月1日掲載 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Необходимы решительные меры, чтобы избежать ловушки низких темпов роста\n - Необходимы решительные меры, чтобы избежать ловушки низких темпов роста (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Необходимы решительные меры, чтобы избежать ловушки низких темпов роста (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- عربي\n- G20\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2016/09/01/we-need-forceful-policies-to-avoid-the-low-growth-trap" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/blogs/articles/2016/09/01/we-need-forceful-policies-to-avoid-the-low-growth-trap/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/blogs/articles/2016/09/01/we-need-forceful-policies-to-avoid-the-low-growth-trap/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/blogs/articles/2016/09/01/we-need-forceful-policies-to-avoid-the-low-growth-trap/bundle-manifest.json)", "Authors: Christine Lagarde", "Published: September 1, 2016", "2016 will be the fifth consecutive year with global GDP growth below its long-term average of 3.7 percent (1990-2007), and 2017 may well be the sixth.", "Not since the early 1990s—when ripple effects from economic transition caused growth to slow—has the world economy been so weak for so long.", "The political pendulum threatens to swing against economic openness, and without forceful policy actions, the world could suffer from disappointing growth for a long time.", "Real growth in advanced economies is running almost a full percentage point below the average of 1990-2007.", "Key factors:", "Emerging economies have been slowing, but this is often a return to historical norms after an exceptionally fast pace in the past decade.", "Developments are diverse across countries:", "Common factors affecting emerging economies:", "Weak global growth interacting with rising inequality is contributing to a political climate where reforms stall and countries adopt inward-looking policies.", "In a broad cross-section of advanced economies, incomes for the top 10 percent increased by about 40 percent in the past 20 years, while growing only very modestly at the bottom.", "Inequality has also increased in many emerging economies, though strong general income growth has sometimes offset impacts on the poor.", "Forceful policy actions are needed. Key elements of a global growth agenda:", "Implementing this agenda takes political courage; inaction risks reversing global economic integration and stalling an engine that has created and spread wealth around the globe.", "This risk is judged too large to take.", "**我们需采取强有力的政策，避免陷入低增长陷阱; iMFdirect博客; 2016年9月1日**", "**低成長の罠を回避するためには、強力な政策が必要; クリスティーヌ・ラガルド iMFdirect ブログ2016年9月1日掲載**", "**Необходимы решительные меры, чтобы избежать ловушки низких темпов роста**", "[عربي](http://blog-montada.imf.org/?p=4464)", "[G20](http://www.imf.org/external/np/g20/090116.htm)" ], "related": [ { "title": "我们需采取强有力的政策，避免陷入低增长陷阱; iMFdirect博客; 2016年9月1日", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "http://www.imf.org/external/chinese/np/blog/2016/090116c.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/external/chinese/np/blog/2016/090116c.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/external/chinese/np/blog/2016/090116c.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "低成長の罠を回避するためには、強力な政策が必要; クリスティーヌ・ラガルド iMFdirect ブログ2016年9月1日掲載", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "http://www.imf.org/external/japanese/np/blog/2016/090116j.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/external/japanese/np/blog/2016/090116j.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/external/japanese/np/blog/2016/090116j.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Необходимы решительные меры, чтобы избежать ловушки низких темпов роста", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "http://www.imf.org/external/russian/np/blog/2016/090116r.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/external/russian/np/blog/2016/090116r.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/external/russian/np/blog/2016/090116r.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } } ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/blogs/articles/2016/09/01/we-need-forceful-policies-to-avoid-the-low-growth-trap/index.md", "json": "/en/blogs/articles/2016/09/01/we-need-forceful-policies-to-avoid-the-low-growth-trap/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/blogs/articles/2016/09/01/we-need-forceful-policies-to-avoid-the-low-growth-trap/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-08-27T22:31:59.818Z" }