{ "title": "The World Economy: Moving Sideways", "publication": "IMF Blog, October 4, 2016", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2016/10/04/the-world-economy-moving-sideways", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2016/10/04/the-world-economy-moving-sideways", "overlayPath": "/en/blogs/articles/2016/10/04/the-world-economy-moving-sideways/index.md", "summary": "Global output growth projected at 3.1 percent in 2016 and 3.4 percent in 2017.", "sections": [ { "heading": "Global outlook and recent performance", "content": "- Global output growth projected at 3.1 percent in 2016 and 3.4 percent in 2017.\n- The new World Economic Outlook sees:\n - A slowdown for the group of advanced economies in 2016.\n - An offsetting pickup for emerging and developing economies in 2016.\n - Prospects for 2017 unchanged for both country groupings.\n- Taken as a whole, the world economy has \"moved sideways\" with no noticeable deceleration over the last quarter.\n- Within-country-group heterogeneity:\n - U.S. growth has disappointed in 2016.\n - Europe and Japan show smaller upside surprises.\n - Emerging Asia has performed better.\n - Sub-Saharan Africa has been dragged down by big commodity exporters, while a number of smaller countries have benefited from lower commodity prices." }, { "heading": "Longer-term trends and constraints on growth", "content": "- Compared to the 1998–2007 averages, long-term potential growth is now projected to be lower in all regions.\n- Current growth rates are lower still in much of the world, notably in emerging market and developing economies.\n- Contributing factors to lower potential and realized growth:\n - Demographic trends.\n - Unsustainable earlier-period developments: initial productivity burst from the information and communications technology revolution, China’s growth surge, and a global financial up-cycle that culminated in a severe worldwide crisis.\n - Persisting crisis legacies: high debt overhangs, non-performing loans on banks’ books, deflationary pressures, low investment, and eroded human capital.\n- Feedback effects:\n - Negative output gaps remain widespread.\n - Investor and consumer caution over income growth prospects can depress realized growth further.\n- Policy imbalance:\n - Policy response so far has relied excessively on central banks.\n - Markets fear that policy has no room to counter the next big negative economic shock." }, { "heading": "Political and social consequences", "content": "- Slow and incomplete recovery has been especially damaging where income distribution skewed toward highest earners.\n- Political movements in some richer countries blame globalization and seek to wall off economies rather than engage cooperatively; Brexit is cited as an example.\n- Political repercussions are likely to depress global growth further." }, { "heading": "Risks to the baseline projections", "content": "- Projections remain tilted to the downside.\n- Upside recovery in 2017 and beyond could be derailed by several, possibly interacting developments:\n - A bumpy transition in China.\n - A sharp further fall in commodity prices.\n - A tightening in global financial conditions.\n - A sharp hike in trade barriers.\n- Geopolitical tensions could flare up, adding to humanitarian crises in the Middle East and Africa and further complicating policymaking." }, { "heading": "Policy strategy: comprehensive, consistent, and coordinated", "content": "- The recommended strategy is three-pronged (as explained in a Staff Discussion Note):\n - Deploy structural and fiscal policy in support of monetary policy.\n - Use monetary policy to maximize the expansionary effects of structural reforms and active fiscal policy.\n - Ensure policies are consistent and well-communicated to stabilize expectations.\n- Coordination among countries can confer beneficial spillovers (e.g., the 2014 Brisbane Action Plan on structural measures).\n- If widely adopted, this approach can:\n - Raise growth now.\n - Defend against a negative global shock and limit damage to fiscal positions if implemented on a larger scale." }, { "heading": "Structural policy priorities", "content": "- A renewed commitment to lowering trade barriers is especially important, in contrast to current trends.\n- Additional structural priorities:\n - Develop labor-market resilience.\n - Lower barriers to entry in product and service markets.\n - Ease adjustment for those most vulnerable to dislocations from technology, trade, and structural reforms.\n- Coordinated action by policymakers can send the clearest message and have the biggest effect.\n\nSource: Maurice Obstfeld, \"The World Economy: Moving Sideways\", October 4, 2016.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- 全球经济：增长未见改善, 作者：莫里斯•奥伯斯法尔德, iMFdirect, 2016年10月4日\n - 全球经济：增长未见改善, 作者：莫里斯•奥伯斯法尔德, iMFdirect, 2016年10月4日 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - 全球经济：增长未见改善, 作者：莫里斯•奥伯斯法尔德, iMFdirect, 2016年10月4日 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 世界経済：横ばい, モーリス・オブストフェルド, iMFdirect, 2016年10月4日\n - 世界経済：横ばい, モーリス・オブストフェルド, iMFdirect, 2016年10月4日 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - 世界経済：横ばい, モーリス・オブストフェルド, iMFdirect, 2016年10月4日 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Мировая экономика: следуя боковому тренду, Морис Обстфельд, 4 октября 2016 года\n - Мировая экономика: следуя боковому тренду, Морис Обстфельд, 4 октября 2016 года (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Мировая экономика: следуя боковому тренду, Морис Обстфельд, 4 октября 2016 года (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- عربي\n- World Economic Outlook\n- Staff Discussion Note\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2016/10/04/the-world-economy-moving-sideways" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/blogs/articles/2016/10/04/the-world-economy-moving-sideways/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/blogs/articles/2016/10/04/the-world-economy-moving-sideways/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/blogs/articles/2016/10/04/the-world-economy-moving-sideways/bundle-manifest.json)", "Authors: Maurice Obstfeld", "Published: October 4, 2016", "Global output growth projected at 3.1 percent in 2016 and 3.4 percent in 2017.", "The new World Economic Outlook sees:", "Taken as a whole, the world economy has \"moved sideways\" with no noticeable deceleration over the last quarter.", "Within-country-group heterogeneity:", "Compared to the 1998–2007 averages, long-term potential growth is now projected to be lower in all regions.", "Current growth rates are lower still in much of the world, notably in emerging market and developing economies.", "Contributing factors to lower potential and realized growth:", "Feedback effects:", "Policy imbalance:", "Slow and incomplete recovery has been especially damaging where income distribution skewed toward highest earners.", "Political movements in some richer countries blame globalization and seek to wall off economies rather than engage cooperatively; Brexit is cited as an example.", "Political repercussions are likely to depress global growth further.", "Projections remain tilted to the downside.", "Upside recovery in 2017 and beyond could be derailed by several, possibly interacting developments:", "Geopolitical tensions could flare up, adding to humanitarian crises in the Middle East and Africa and further complicating policymaking.", "The recommended strategy is three-pronged (as explained in a Staff Discussion Note):", "Coordination among countries can confer beneficial spillovers (e.g., the 2014 Brisbane Action Plan on structural measures).", "If widely adopted, this approach can:", "A renewed commitment to lowering trade barriers is especially important, in contrast to current trends.", "Additional structural priorities:", "Coordinated action by policymakers can send the clearest message and have the biggest effect.", "**全球经济：增长未见改善, 作者：莫里斯•奥伯斯法尔德, iMFdirect, 2016年10月4日**", "**世界経済：横ばい, モーリス・オブストフェルド, iMFdirect, 2016年10月4日**", "**Мировая экономика: следуя боковому тренду, Морис Обстфельд, 4 октября 2016 года**", "[عربي](http://blog-montada.imf.org/?p=4496)", "[World Economic Outlook](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/index.htm)", "[Staff Discussion Note](https://blogs.imf.org/2016/09/28/the-whole-can-be-greater-than-the-sum-of-its-parts/)" ], "related": [ { "title": "全球经济：增长未见改善, 作者：莫里斯•奥伯斯法尔德, iMFdirect, 2016年10月4日", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "http://www.imf.org/external/chinese/np/blog/2016/100416c.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/external/chinese/np/blog/2016/100416c.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/external/chinese/np/blog/2016/100416c.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "世界経済：横ばい, モーリス・オブストフェルド, iMFdirect, 2016年10月4日", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "http://www.imf.org/external/japanese/np/blog/2016/100416j.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/external/japanese/np/blog/2016/100416j.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/external/japanese/np/blog/2016/100416j.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Мировая экономика: следуя боковому тренду, Морис Обстфельд, 4 октября 2016 года", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "http://www.imf.org/external/russian/np/blog/2016/100416r.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/external/russian/np/blog/2016/100416r.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/external/russian/np/blog/2016/100416r.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } } ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/blogs/articles/2016/10/04/the-world-economy-moving-sideways/index.md", "json": "/en/blogs/articles/2016/10/04/the-world-economy-moving-sideways/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/blogs/articles/2016/10/04/the-world-economy-moving-sideways/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-08-27T22:38:36.436Z" }