## Helping Feed the World’s Fast-Growing Population

_IMF Blog, January 31, 2017_

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**Canonical URL:** [Helping Feed the World’s Fast-Growing Population](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2017/01/31/helping-feed-the-worlds-fast-growing-population)

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Rabah Arezki
- Published: January 31, 2017

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### Overview and scale of the challenge
- Global farm subsidies amount to over $560 billion a year—equivalent to nearly four times the aid given to developing countries by richer ones.
- One third of global food production goes to waste.
- Food-calorie production will have to expand by 70 percent by 2050 to keep up with a global population that’s forecast to grow to 9.7 billion from last year’s 7.3 billion.
- Putting all of the world’s unused land into service, assuming everything else remains unchanged, would only suffice to feed 9 billion people.
- Food insecurity remains widespread in developing countries and can lead to violence and conflicts that can spill over borders.

### Land, productivity, and investment
- There is substantial scope to increase output on existing agricultural land; in sub-Saharan Africa, yields are currently 50 percent below potential.
- Barriers to cross-border investment hinder financing for adoption of productivity-enhancing technologies. Key barriers include inadequate infrastructure, risks of expropriation, and questions of land tenure or opaque property rights.
- A surge in cross-border land deals in developing countries following the food crisis of 2007‒08 has since abated, raising questions about the sustainability of such investments.
- Despite demand shifts from West to East, advanced economies still account for the lion’s share of exports.

### Trade, market distortions, and price volatility
- Major emerging-market nations have increased subsidies rapidly, even as rich nations cut theirs drastically.
- Tariffs on farm products remain a major point of contention in global trade talks; food makes up just 8 percent of the value of global commerce but frequently stalls negotiations (for example, disagreements over agriculture torpedoed the Doha Round of global trade talks in 2008).
- Since 1990, 27 nations have switched from being net exporters of food to being net importers, including Honduras, the Philippines, Zimbabwe, and Vietnam.
- Policy responses can exacerbate price spikes: in 2008, rapidly rising prices prompted exporters to impose restrictions on overseas shipments while importers lowered barriers—together these actions worsened the food-price spike.
- Especially distorted markets include those for soybeans, sugar, rice, wheat, and beef.

### Policy recommendations and measures to reduce food insecurity
- Remove market distortions—dismantle direct and indirect barriers to trade to help low-income nations develop their agricultural sectors.
- Low-income countries should raise productivity by removing obstacles to investment to attract foreign capital.
- Reduce food-price volatility through:
  - ensuring higher agricultural productivity,
  - improved supply chains,
  - regional coordination to maintain and manage grain reserves.
- Recognize that policies aimed at stabilizing domestic prices (export restrictions, unilateral import liberalization) can worsen international price volatility; coordinated and productivity-focused measures are more effective.

### Climate change and agricultural vulnerability
- Climate change can reduce crop yields and livestock productivity through changes in average temperatures, precipitation patterns, and extreme weather events; in some regions moderate temperature increases could raise yields.
- Less-developed countries closer to the equator are the most vulnerable.
- Ethiopia’s two main rainy seasons supply more than 80 percent of its agricultural yields and recent droughts produced some of the worst conditions in decades.
- Extreme weather events are expected to worsen and increase in frequency.
- “Climate-smart’’ agriculture can ease impacts by offering smallholders opportunities to produce more nutritious crops in a sustainable and efficient way, but addressing climate risks increases the urgency of removing trade and investment barriers that restrain productivity gains.

*Source: Rabah Arezki, “Helping Feed the World’s Fast-Growing Population,” January 31, 2017.*

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## Content in this bundle

- **World Bank Document**
  - [World Bank Document (Markdown version)](/curated/en/884731468221080363/pdf/644450WP00publ00Security0BOX361537B.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [World Bank Document (PDF)](/curated/en/884731468221080363/pdf/644450WP00publ00Security0BOX361537B.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf;charset=utf-8"}
- **SF_Commodity**
  - [SF_Commodity (Markdown version)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/pdf/SF_Commodity.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [SF_Commodity (PDF)](/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/pdf/SF_Commodity.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

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## References

- [World Economic Outlook](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/)
- [Picture This](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2016/12/picture.htm)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2017/01/31/helping-feed-the-worlds-fast-growing-population_