{
  "title": "Emerging Markets and Developing Economies: Sustaining Growth in a Less Supportive External Environment",
  "publication": "IMF Blog, April 12, 2017",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2017/04/12/emergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomiessustaininggrowthinalesssupportiveexternalenvironment",
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  "summary": "Authors: Bertrand Gruss, Malhar Nabar, Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview",
      "content": "- Authors: Bertrand Gruss, Malhar Nabar, Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro\n- Publication date: April 12, 2017\n- Summary focus: How external conditions contributed to past growth in emerging market and developing economies, the challenges from a less supportive external environment, and policy options to sustain convergence and growth."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Role of external conditions",
      "content": "- Emerging market and developing economies now account for close to 80 percent of global economic growth.\n- These economies account for close to 85 percent of the growth in global consumption.\n- Integration developments since the 1990s:\n  - Greater integration into the global trading system and international capital markets.\n  - Relative prices of exports and imports, external demand, and external financial conditions increasingly influence growth in real income per capita.\n- Quantitative finding:\n  - About one third of the 1½ percentage points pickup in the average growth rate of income per capita since 2005, relative to the 1995-2004 period, can be attributed to stronger capital inflows.\n- External demand from other emerging market and developing economies has become a more powerful force on medium-term growth.\n- Favorable external conditions affect the growth process by:\n  - Increasing the likelihood of growth accelerations.\n  - Lowering the likelihood of growth reversals.\n  - Producing sustained changes in growth rates with long-lasting effects on the level of income per capita."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Growth in a more complicated external environment",
      "content": "- Post-2000 period featured exceptionally favorable external conditions:\n  - Strong external demand.\n  - Relatively abundant capital inflows.\n  - An upswing in commodity prices.\n- Recent shifts weakening the external impulse:\n  - Slow recovery in advanced economies has weakened demand for emerging market and developing economy exports.\n  - China has relied less on commodity imports as it rebalances toward consumption and services.\n  - The commodity cycle has turned since 2014, reducing growth rates among commodity exporters.\n- Additional elements that may persist and weigh on external support:\n  - Risk of protectionism in advanced economies.\n  - General tightening of external financial conditions as US monetary policy normalizes.\n- Implication: Emerging market and developing economies are likely to experience a weaker growth impulse from external conditions than in the past."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Room for convergence and policy prescriptions",
      "content": "- Despite weaker external support, these economies can enhance growth by:\n  - Strengthening institutional frameworks.\n  - Protecting trade integration.\n  - Permitting exchange rate flexibility.\n  - Containing vulnerabilities from high current account deficits and large public debts.\n- Some policies can directly boost growth irrespective of external conditions.\n- Remaining potential for catch-up:\n  - With 90 percent of the group at levels of income per capita less than half that in the United States, there is considerable room for catch-up growth and convergence.\n\nSource: Emerging Markets and Developing Economies: Sustaining Growth in a Less Supportive External Environment, Bertrand Gruss, Malhar Nabar, Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro, April 12, 2017.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- 新兴市场和发展中经济体：在不利的外部环境下维持增长; IMF博客\n  - 新兴市场和发展中经济体：在不利的外部环境下维持增长; IMF博客 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 新兴市场和发展中经济体：在不利的外部环境下维持增长; IMF博客 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 新興市場及び発展途上国経済: 外部環境支援薄れる中の成長維持は: バートランド・グラス、 マルハ―・ナバー、  マルコス・ポプロースキ・リベリオ iMFdirect ブログ 2017年4月10日掲載\n  - 新興市場及び発展途上国経済: 外部環境支援薄れる中の成長維持は: バートランド・グラス、 マルハ―・ナバー、  マルコス・ポプロースキ・リベリオ iMFdirect ブログ 2017年4月10日掲載 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 新興市場及び発展途上国経済: 外部環境支援薄れる中の成長維持は: バートランド・グラス、 マルハ―・ナバー、  マルコス・ポプロースキ・リベリオ iMFdirect ブログ 2017年4月10日掲載 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 041017r\n  - 041017r (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 041017r (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- عربي\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2017/04/12/emergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomiessustaininggrowthinalesssupportiveexternalenvironment"
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    "Authors: Bertrand Gruss, Malhar Nabar, Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro",
    "Published: April 12, 2017",
    "Authors: Bertrand Gruss, Malhar Nabar, Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro",
    "Publication date: April 12, 2017",
    "Summary focus: How external conditions contributed to past growth in emerging market and developing economies, the challenges from a less supportive external environment, and policy options to sustain convergence and growth.",
    "Emerging market and developing economies now account for close to 80 percent of global economic growth.",
    "These economies account for close to 85 percent of the growth in global consumption.",
    "Integration developments since the 1990s:",
    "Quantitative finding:",
    "External demand from other emerging market and developing economies has become a more powerful force on medium-term growth.",
    "Favorable external conditions affect the growth process by:",
    "Post-2000 period featured exceptionally favorable external conditions:",
    "Recent shifts weakening the external impulse:",
    "Additional elements that may persist and weigh on external support:",
    "Implication: Emerging market and developing economies are likely to experience a weaker growth impulse from external conditions than in the past.",
    "Despite weaker external support, these economies can enhance growth by:",
    "Some policies can directly boost growth irrespective of external conditions.",
    "Remaining potential for catch-up:",
    "**新兴市场和发展中经济体：在不利的外部环境下维持增长; IMF博客**",
    "**新興市場及び発展途上国経済: 外部環境支援薄れる中の成長維持は: バートランド・グラス、 マルハ―・ナバー、  マルコス・ポプロースキ・リベリオ iMFdirect ブログ 2017年4月10日掲載**",
    "**041017r**",
    "[عربي](http://blog-montada.imf.org/?p=4822)"
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