## Productivity, Technology, and Demographics

_IMF Blog, May 5, 2017_

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**Canonical URL:** [Productivity, Technology, and Demographics](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2017/05/05/productivity-technology-and-demographics)

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: The Editors
- Published: May 5, 2017

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### Key observations on productivity and technology
- Hal Varian: "if technology cannot boost productivity, then we are in real trouble."
- Varian identifies "at least three forces at work":
  - "the investment hangover from the recession—companies have been slow to reestablish their previous levels of investment."
  - "the diffusion of technology—the increasing gap between some of the more advanced companies and less advanced companies."
  - "existing metrics are facing some strains in terms of adapting to the new economy."

### Demographics and labor force trends
- Varian on demographics: baby boomers "made up most of the labor force from the 1970s through 1990s" and are now retiring but "will continue to be consumers."
- Labor force growth: "Today, the working labor force is growing at less than half of the rate of population growth, which is a concern in terms of how to make the amount produced equal to the amount that people want to consume."
- Long-term horizon: Varian projects "thirty years from now, the global labor force will look very different, as working age populations in many countries, especially in advanced economies, start to shrink."

### Skills, learning, and employment outlook
- Addressing worker concerns about automation: Varian cites a Silicon Valley aphorism—"we overestimate what can happen in two years, and we underestimate what can happen in ten years—this has proven true time and again."
- Advice to older workers: "What the 40- and 50-year-olds should be doing is continuing to learn. Lifetime learning is the norm now."

### Additional note
- The original content states: "You can listen to the full interview here:"

*Source: Productivity, Technology, and Demographics, The Editors, May 5, 2017*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2017/05/05/productivity-technology-and-demographics_