{
  "title": "A Firming Recovery",
  "publication": "IMF Blog, July 24, 2017",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2017/07/24/a-firming-recovery",
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  "summary": "The recovery in global growth projected in April \"is on a firmer footing; there is now no question mark over the world economy’s gain in momentum.\"",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview",
      "content": "- The recovery in global growth projected in April \"is on a firmer footing; there is now no question mark over the world economy’s gain in momentum.\"\n- \"As in our April forecast, the World Economic Outlook Update projects 3.5 percent growth in global output for this year and 3.6 percent for next.\"\n- The distribution of growth has shifted: \"some economies are up but others are down, offsetting those improvements.\""
    },
    {
      "heading": "Growth projections and notable country/region developments",
      "content": "- Global:\n  - World Economic Outlook Update projects \"3.5 percent growth in global output for this year and 3.6 percent for next.\"\n  - World trade growth has picked up, with volumes projected to grow faster than global output in the next two years.\n- Euro area:\n  - Forecast raised compared with recent projections; performance is \"notable compared with the not-too-distant past.\"\n- Japan, China, and emerging and developing Asia:\n  - Projections raised for Japan and for China, and for emerging and developing Asia more generally.\n- Emerging and developing Europe and Mexico:\n  - Notable improvements observed.\n- United States:\n  - Forecasts for both 2017 and 2018 reduced to \"2.1 percent\" because near-term U.S. fiscal policy looks less likely to be expansionary than believed in April.\n  - \"This pace is still well above the lacklustre 2016 U.S. outcome of 1.6 percent growth.\"\n  - Over the next two years, \"U.S. growth should remain above its longer-run potential growth rate.\"\n- United Kingdom:\n  - Projection for this year is lowered \"based on the economy’s tepid performance so far.\"\n  - \"The ultimate impact of Brexit on the United Kingdom remains unclear.\"\n- Latin America:\n  - Projections for the region lowered over the next two years; the region \"still struggles with sub-par growth.\"\n- Sub-Saharan Africa:\n  - Growth this year is projected to be higher than last year, but \"remains barely above the population growth rate, implying stagnating per capita incomes.\"\n- Commodity exporters and lower-income countries:\n  - Continued weakness as they \"continue to adjust to reduced terms of trade.\""
    },
    {
      "heading": "Risks (near-term and medium-term)",
      "content": "- Upside risk:\n  - \"Possibility of even stronger growth in continental Europe, as political risks have diminished.\"\n- Downside risks:\n  - Many emerging and developing economies receiving capital inflows at favorable borrowing rates, possibly leading to \"risks of balance of payments reversals later.\"\n  - Strains could emerge if advanced economy central banks \"show an increasing preference for monetary tightening.\"\n  - Core inflation pressures remain low in advanced economies and measures of longer-term inflation expectations show \"no indications of upward drift beyond targets.\"\n  - Recommendation for central banks: \"proceed cautiously based on incoming economic data, reducing the risk of a premature tightening in financial conditions.\"\n- China:\n  - Supportive policy has promoted recent high growth; IMF upgraded 2017 and 2018 forecasts for China \"by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage point, respectively, to 6.7 and 6.4 percent.\"\n  - Higher growth comes at the cost of \"continuing rapid credit expansion and the resulting financial stability risks.\"\n  - Positive note: \"China’s recent moves to address nonperforming loans and to coordinate financial oversight therefore are welcome.\"\n- Protectionism and geopolitical risk:\n  - \"The threat of protectionist actions and responses remains salient in the near and medium terms, as do geopolitical risks.\""
    },
    {
      "heading": "Longer-term outlook and policy recommendations",
      "content": "- Long-term growth:\n  - \"Despite the current improved outlook, longer-term growth forecasts remain subdued compared with historical levels, and tepid longer-term growth also carries risks.\"\n- Advanced economies:\n  - \"Median real incomes have stagnated and inequality has risen over several decades.\"\n  - \"Even as unemployment is falling, wage growth still remains weak.\"\n  - Slow growth risks \"exacerbating social tensions that have already pushed some electorates in the direction of more inward-looking economic policies.\"\n- Emerging economies:\n  - \"Despite generally higher inequality than in advanced economies, substantial income gains have accrued even to those low in the income distribution.\"\n- Policy actions while cyclical upswing persists:\n  - \"Suitable structural reforms can raise potential output in all countries, especially if supported by growth-friendly fiscal policies including productive infrastructure investment, provided there is room in the government budget.\"\n  - \"Investment in people is critical—whether in basic education, job training, or reskilling programs.\"\n    - These measures will \"increase labor markets’ resilience to economic transformation and raise potential output.\"\n  - Policies to help adjust to globalization (as described in the recent report co-authored with the World Bank and World Trade Organization) are \"more broadly necessary to meet the challenges of technology and automation.\"\n- Multilateral cooperation:\n  - \"Strengthening multilateral cooperation is another key to prosperity, in a range of areas including trade, financial stability policy, corporate taxation, climate, health, and famine relief.\"\n  - Warning: \"Where domestic developments have a strong international impact, policies based narrowly on national advantage are at best inefficient and at worst highly damaging to all.\"\n\nMaurice Obstfeld, July 24, 2017 — A Firming Recovery\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- 复苏企稳, 作者：莫里·奥伯斯费尔德, 2017 年7 月24 日\n  - 复苏企稳, 作者：莫里·奥伯斯费尔德, 2017 年7 月24 日 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 复苏企稳, 作者：莫里·奥伯斯费尔德, 2017 年7 月24 日 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 回復は;底堅い; モーリス・オブストフェルド IMFブログ, 2017年7月24日掲載\n  - 回復は;底堅い; モーリス・オブストフェルド IMFブログ, 2017年7月24日掲載 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 回復は;底堅い; モーリス・オブストフェルド IMFブログ, 2017年7月24日掲載 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Sebuah Pemulihan yang Menguat, By Maurice Obstfeld, 24 Juli, 2017\n  - Sebuah Pemulihan yang Menguat, By Maurice Obstfeld, 24 Juli, 2017 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Sebuah Pemulihan yang Menguat, By Maurice Obstfeld, 24 Juli, 2017 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Набирающее силы восстановление, Морис Обстфельд, 23 июля 2017 года\n  - Набирающее силы восстановление, Морис Обстфельд, 23 июля 2017 года (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Набирающее силы восстановление, Морис Обстфельд, 23 июля 2017 года (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- عربي\n- https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/BLOG-1024x600-WEOUpdateJuly2017-Global-Economy-chart.jpg\n- World Economic Outlook Update\n- report\n- https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/weo-table.jpg\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2017/07/24/a-firming-recovery"
    }
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    "[Markdown version](/en/blogs/articles/2017/07/24/a-firming-recovery/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/blogs/articles/2017/07/24/a-firming-recovery/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/blogs/articles/2017/07/24/a-firming-recovery/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Authors: Maurice Obstfeld",
    "Published: July 24, 2017",
    "The recovery in global growth projected in April \"is on a firmer footing; there is now no question mark over the world economy’s gain in momentum.\"",
    "\"As in our April forecast, the World Economic Outlook Update projects 3.5 percent growth in global output for this year and 3.6 percent for next.\"",
    "The distribution of growth has shifted: \"some economies are up but others are down, offsetting those improvements.\"",
    "Global:",
    "Euro area:",
    "Japan, China, and emerging and developing Asia:",
    "Emerging and developing Europe and Mexico:",
    "United States:",
    "United Kingdom:",
    "Latin America:",
    "Sub-Saharan Africa:",
    "Commodity exporters and lower-income countries:",
    "Upside risk:",
    "Downside risks:",
    "China:",
    "Protectionism and geopolitical risk:",
    "Long-term growth:",
    "Advanced economies:",
    "Emerging economies:",
    "Policy actions while cyclical upswing persists:",
    "Multilateral cooperation:",
    "**复苏企稳, 作者：莫里·奥伯斯费尔德, 2017 年7 月24 日**",
    "**回復は;底堅い; モーリス・オブストフェルド IMFブログ, 2017年7月24日掲載**",
    "**Sebuah Pemulihan yang Menguat, By Maurice Obstfeld, 24 Juli, 2017**",
    "**Набирающее силы восстановление, Морис Обстфельд, 23 июля 2017 года**",
    "[عربي](https://blog-montada.imf.org/?p=5521)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/BLOG-1024x600-WEOUpdateJuly2017-Global-Economy-chart.jpg](https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/BLOG-1024x600-WEOUpdateJuly2017-Global-Economy-chart.jpg)",
    "[World Economic Outlook Update](http://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2017/07/07/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2017)",
    "[report](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Policy-Papers/Issues/2017/04/08/making-trade-an-engine-of-growth-for-all)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/weo-table.jpg](https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/weo-table.jpg)"
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