{
  "title": "Rising Household Debt: What It Means for Growth and Stability",
  "publication": "IMF Blog, October 3, 2017",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2017/10/03/rising-household-debt-what-it-means-for-growth-and-stability",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2017/10/03/rising-household-debt-what-it-means-for-growth-and-stability",
  "overlayPath": "/en/blogs/articles/2017/10/03/rising-household-debt-what-it-means-for-growth-and-stability/index.md",
  "summary": "Household debt (including mortgage debt) has been rising since the global financial crisis.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary of central findings",
      "content": "- Household debt (including mortgage debt) has been rising since the global financial crisis.\n- Since 2008, household debt as a proportion of gross domestic product has grown significantly in a sample of 80 countries.\n  - Among advanced economies, the median debt ratio rose to 63 percent last year from 52 percent in 2008.\n  - Among emerging economies, it increased to 21 percent from 15 percent.\n- There is a tradeoff between short-term benefits and medium-term costs of rising household debt:\n  - In the short term, increased household debt is likely to boost economic growth and employment.\n  - In three to five years, those effects are reversed: growth is slower than it would have been otherwise, and the odds of a financial crisis increase.\n  - These adverse effects are stronger at the higher levels of debt typical of advanced economies and weaker at lower levels prevailing in emerging markets."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Quantitative effects identified",
      "content": "- A 5 percentage-point increase in the ratio of household debt to GDP over a three-year period forecasts a 1.25 percentage-point decline in inflation-adjusted growth three years in the future.\n- Higher household debt is associated with significantly higher unemployment up to four years ahead.\n- A 1 percentage point increase in debt raises the odds of a future banking crisis by about 1 percentage point.\n- Baseline probability of a banking crisis, without any increase in debt, is 3.5 percent."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Mechanisms and dynamics",
      "content": "- Short-term mechanism: Households take on debt to buy durables (homes, cars), boosting demand, employment, and activity in construction and manufacturing.\n- Medium-term mechanism: Highly indebted households may cut back spending to repay loans, reducing aggregate demand.\n- Tail risk: A sudden shock (for example, a decline in home prices) can trigger credit defaults and a systemic financial crisis, as seen in 2008."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy implications and measures to mitigate risks",
      "content": "- Structural and macroeconomic settings that reduce vulnerability:\n  - Countries with less external debt are better placed to weather rising household debt.\n  - Countries with floating exchange rates are better positioned to absorb shocks.\n  - Financially more developed countries have greater capacity to manage consequences.\n- Regulatory and distributional policies that help:\n  - Better financial-sector regulations reduce risk.\n  - Lower income inequality also mitigates vulnerability.\n- Direct measures to moderate household debt growth:\n  - Modify the down payment required to purchase a house.\n  - Limit the fraction of household income that can be devoted to debt repayments.\n- Overall: Good policies, institutions, and regulations can substantially ease the tradeoff between short-term benefits and medium-term costs; conversely, countries with poor policies are more vulnerable even if initial debt levels are low.\n\nRising Household Debt: What It Means for Growth and Stability — IMF blog, October 3, 2017\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- 家庭债务增加：对经济增长和稳定意味着什么; IMF博客; 2017年10月3日\n  - 家庭债务增加：对经济增长和稳定意味着什么; IMF博客; 2017年10月3日 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 家庭债务增加：对经济增长和稳定意味着什么; IMF博客; 2017年10月3日 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 家計債務の上昇：経済の成長と安定への影響は？; Nico Valckx ; IMF ブログ 2017年10月3日掲載\n  - 家計債務の上昇：経済の成長と安定への影響は？; Nico Valckx ; IMF ブログ 2017年10月3日掲載 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 家計債務の上昇：経済の成長と安定への影響は？; Nico Valckx ; IMF ブログ 2017年10月3日掲載 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Увеличение задолженности домашних хозяйств — влияние на рост и стабильность\n  - Увеличение задолженности домашних хозяйств — влияние на рост и стабильность (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Увеличение задолженности домашних хозяйств — влияние на рост и стабильность (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- عربي\n- Españo\n- https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/BLOG-1024x600-GFSR-CH3-house-sold-Louoates-iStock-134252386.jpg\n- Global Financial Stability Report\n- https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ENGSept27GFSRch2Chart1-10.jpg\n- https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ENGSept27GFSRch2Chart2-4.jpg\n- https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ENGSept27GFSRch2Chart3-2.jpg\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2017/10/03/rising-household-debt-what-it-means-for-growth-and-stability"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/blogs/articles/2017/10/03/rising-household-debt-what-it-means-for-growth-and-stability/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/blogs/articles/2017/10/03/rising-household-debt-what-it-means-for-growth-and-stability/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/blogs/articles/2017/10/03/rising-household-debt-what-it-means-for-growth-and-stability/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Authors: Nico Valckx",
    "Published: October 3, 2017",
    "Household debt (including mortgage debt) has been rising since the global financial crisis.",
    "Since 2008, household debt as a proportion of gross domestic product has grown significantly in a sample of 80 countries.",
    "There is a tradeoff between short-term benefits and medium-term costs of rising household debt:",
    "A 5 percentage-point increase in the ratio of household debt to GDP over a three-year period forecasts a 1.25 percentage-point decline in inflation-adjusted growth three years in the future.",
    "Higher household debt is associated with significantly higher unemployment up to four years ahead.",
    "A 1 percentage point increase in debt raises the odds of a future banking crisis by about 1 percentage point.",
    "Baseline probability of a banking crisis, without any increase in debt, is 3.5 percent.",
    "Short-term mechanism: Households take on debt to buy durables (homes, cars), boosting demand, employment, and activity in construction and manufacturing.",
    "Medium-term mechanism: Highly indebted households may cut back spending to repay loans, reducing aggregate demand.",
    "Tail risk: A sudden shock (for example, a decline in home prices) can trigger credit defaults and a systemic financial crisis, as seen in 2008.",
    "Structural and macroeconomic settings that reduce vulnerability:",
    "Regulatory and distributional policies that help:",
    "Direct measures to moderate household debt growth:",
    "Overall: Good policies, institutions, and regulations can substantially ease the tradeoff between short-term benefits and medium-term costs; conversely, countries with poor policies are more vulnerable even if initial debt levels are low.",
    "**家庭债务增加：对经济增长和稳定意味着什么; IMF博客; 2017年10月3日**",
    "**家計債務の上昇：経済の成長と安定への影響は？; Nico Valckx ; IMF ブログ 2017年10月3日掲載**",
    "**Увеличение задолженности домашних хозяйств — влияние на рост и стабильность**",
    "[عربي](https://blog-montada.imf.org/?p=5622)",
    "[Españo](https://blog-dialogoafondo.imf.org/?p=8401)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/BLOG-1024x600-GFSR-CH3-house-sold-Louoates-iStock-134252386.jpg](https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/BLOG-1024x600-GFSR-CH3-house-sold-Louoates-iStock-134252386.jpg)",
    "[Global Financial Stability Report](http://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2017/09/27/global-financial-stability-report-october-2017)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ENG_Sept_27_GFSR_ch2Chart1-10.jpg](https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ENG_Sept_27_GFSR_ch2Chart1-10.jpg)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ENG_Sept_27_GFSRch2Chart2-4.jpg](https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ENG_Sept_27_GFSRch2Chart2-4.jpg)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ENG_Sept_27_GFSRch2Chart3-2.jpg](https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ENG_Sept_27_GFSRch2Chart3-2.jpg)"
  ],
  "related": [
    {
      "title": "家庭债务增加：对经济增长和稳定意味着什么; IMF博客; 2017年10月3日",
      "role": "document",
      "sourceUrl": "http://www.imf.org/external/chinese/np/blog/2017/100317bc.pdf",
      "summary": {
        "path": "/external/chinese/np/blog/2017/100317bc.pdf.md",
        "mime": "text/markdown"
      },
      "binary": {
        "path": "/external/chinese/np/blog/2017/100317bc.pdf",
        "mime": "application/pdf"
      }
    },
    {
      "title": "家計債務の上昇：経済の成長と安定への影響は？; Nico Valckx ; IMF ブログ 2017年10月3日掲載",
      "role": "document",
      "sourceUrl": "http://www.imf.org/external/japanese/np/blog/2017/100317aj.pdf",
      "summary": {
        "path": "/external/japanese/np/blog/2017/100317aj.pdf.md",
        "mime": "text/markdown"
      },
      "binary": {
        "path": "/external/japanese/np/blog/2017/100317aj.pdf",
        "mime": "application/pdf"
      }
    },
    {
      "title": "Увеличение задолженности домашних хозяйств — влияние на рост и стабильность",
      "role": "document",
      "sourceUrl": "http://www.imf.org/external/russian/np/blog/2017/100317ar.pdf",
      "summary": {
        "path": "/external/russian/np/blog/2017/100317ar.pdf.md",
        "mime": "text/markdown"
      },
      "binary": {
        "path": "/external/russian/np/blog/2017/100317ar.pdf",
        "mime": "application/pdf"
      }
    }
  ],
  "alternates": {
    "markdown": "/en/blogs/articles/2017/10/03/rising-household-debt-what-it-means-for-growth-and-stability/index.md",
    "json": "/en/blogs/articles/2017/10/03/rising-household-debt-what-it-means-for-growth-and-stability/index.json",
    "bundleManifest": "/en/blogs/articles/2017/10/03/rising-household-debt-what-it-means-for-growth-and-stability/bundle-manifest.json"
  },
  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-08-27T19:38:38.267Z"
}