## Climate Change Will Bring More Frequent Natural Disasters & Weigh on Economic Growth

_IMF Blog, November 16, 2017_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Climate Change Will Bring More Frequent Natural Disasters & Weigh on Economic Growth](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2017/11/16/climate-change-will-bring-more-frequent-natural-disasters-weigh-on-economic-growth)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/blogs/articles/2017/11/16/climate-change-will-bring-more-frequent-natural-disasters-weigh-on-economic-growth/index.md)
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- [Bundle manifest](/en/blogs/articles/2017/11/16/climate-change-will-bring-more-frequent-natural-disasters-weigh-on-economic-growth/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Sebastian Acevedo, Natalija Novta
- Published: November 16, 2017

---

### Summary and context
- Authors: Sebastian Acevedo, Natalija Novta
- Date: November 16, 2017
- Based on analysis in Chapter 3 of the October 2017 World Economic Outlook.
- Focus: empirical analysis linking historical weather patterns to weather-related natural disasters and projections under an unmitigated climate change scenario.

### Historical evidence on disaster occurrence
- Between 1990 and 2014, there were more than 8,000 weather related disasters.
- Sample: 228 countries and territories.
- Method: examined the historical relationship between the occurrence of each type of weather-related natural disaster and monthly weather patterns over the past 25 years.
- Key empirical finding:
  - Temperature and precipitation are very important predictors of most disasters.
  - Higher temperature is associated with more disasters caused by droughts, wildfires, heat waves, tropical cyclones and other storms.
  - More rain is associated with fewer disasters caused by droughts, wildfires and heat waves, and with more disasters caused by floods, landslides, tropical cyclones and other storms.

### Future projections under an unmitigated scenario
- Approach: combine empirical estimates from historical data with projected temperature and precipitation for each country under the unmitigated climate change scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
- Temporal horizons analyzed: 2050 and 2100.
- Climate projection cited: under the unmitigated scenario, mean global temperatures are expected to increase by about 4°C by 2100.
- Projected changes in disaster frequency:
  - Most types of weather-related disasters will become more common by the end of the century, across all income groups.
  - The frequency of disasters caused by heat waves, tropical cyclones and wildfires will increase considerably.
  - Although scientists expect the overall frequency of tropical cyclones to decline in a warmer world, storms that form are expected to be more intense, likely resulting in more disasters.
  - Floods and epidemics, which primarily affect low-income countries, will also become more common.
  - Warmer environments increase reproduction and spread of mosquitoes and pathogens, increasing the probability of epidemics.

### Economic and social implications
- Increasing disaster risk will manifest on top of longer term negative effects that temperature increases have on macroeconomic activity.
- Potential consequences include increased migration flows from affected countries with potentially sizable spillovers across the globe.
- Natural disasters are a particularly important risk to small, lower income countries because they can quickly wipe out a significant portion of their GDP.
- IMF role: for decades, the IMF has been committed to helping meet members’ post-disaster needs.

### Policy recommendations and preparedness measures
- Invest in resilient infrastructure that can withstand rising sea levels and higher wind speeds, among other increased hazards.
- Update zoning laws and building codes to account for climate change.
- Improve early warning systems to reduce future costs.
- When times are good, save so that countries have room for additional government spending to support their economies when climate-related disasters hit.
- Global mitigation imperative: only a concerted global effort to curb greenhouse gas emissions will help avert the worst effects of climate change.
- International engagement: the UN’s Climate Change Conference (COP23) taking place in Bonn the week of publication is critical to make meaningful progress.

*Source: IMF blog post — Sebastian Acevedo and Natalija Novta, November 16, 2017.*

---

## Content in this bundle

- **气候变化将导致更频繁的自然灾害，对经济增长造成不利影响; IMF博客; 2017 年11 月16 日**
  - [气候变化将导致更频繁的自然灾害，对经济增长造成不利影响; IMF博客; 2017 年11 月16 日 (Markdown version)](/external/chinese/np/blog/2017/111717c.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [气候变化将导致更频繁的自然灾害，对经济增长造成不利影响; IMF博客; 2017 年11 月16 日 (PDF)](/external/chinese/np/blog/2017/111717c.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **気候変動によって自然災害の発生頻度が増加し、経済成長の足枷となるだろう;  セバスチャン・アセヴェイドー、ナタリア・ノフタ; IMF ブログ 2017年11月16日掲載**
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  - [気候変動によって自然災害の発生頻度が増加し、経済成長の足枷となるだろう;  セバスチャン・アセヴェイドー、ナタリア・ノフタ; IMF ブログ 2017年11月16日掲載 (PDF)](/external/japanese/np/blog/2017/111617j.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Изменение климата приведет к более частым стихийным бедствиям и затруднит экономический рост**
  - [Изменение климата приведет к более частым стихийным бедствиям и затруднит экономический рост (Markdown version)](/external/russian/np/blog/2017/111617r.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Изменение климата приведет к более частым стихийным бедствиям и затруднит экономический рост (PDF)](/external/russian/np/blog/2017/111617r.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

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## References

- [عربي](https://blog-montada.imf.org/?p=5685)
- [https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/BLOG-1024x600-Puerto-Rico-mom-holding-baby-destruction-Carlos-garcia-Rawlins-rtrlnine161973.jpg](https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/BLOG-1024x600-Puerto-Rico-mom-holding-baby-destruction-Carlos-garcia-Rawlins-rtrlnine161973.jpg)
- [small, lower income countries](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Policy-Papers/Issues/2016/12/31/Small-States-Resilience-to-Natural-Disasters-and-Climate-Change-Role-for-the-IMF-PP5079)
- [https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/ENG_Nov_10Natural_disasters-4.jpg](https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/ENG_Nov_10Natural_disasters-4.jpg)
- [https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/ENG_Nov_10_Natural_disasters_2-2.jpg](https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/ENG_Nov_10_Natural_disasters_2-2.jpg)
- [all countries](https://blogs.imf.org/2017/09/27/the-unequal-burden-of-rising-temperatures-how-can-low-income-countries-cope/)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2017/11/16/climate-change-will-bring-more-frequent-natural-disasters-weigh-on-economic-growth_