## Chart of the Week: Greenery and Prosperity

_IMF Blog, May 21, 2018_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Chart of the Week: Greenery and Prosperity](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2018/05/21/blog-greenery-and-prosperity)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/blogs/articles/2018/05/21/blog-greenery-and-prosperity/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/blogs/articles/2018/05/21/blog-greenery-and-prosperity/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/blogs/articles/2018/05/21/blog-greenery-and-prosperity/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Joo Tovar Jalles, Prakash Loungani
- Published: May 21, 2018

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### Study scope and methodology
- Analysis covers the world’s top twenty largest GHG emitters from 1990 to the present.
- The chart summarizes the percent increase in trend emissions for every 1 percent increase in trend incomes—reported as elasticities (percent change in trend emissions per 1 percent change in trend incomes).
- Trend measures capture long-run relationships in emissions and incomes, abstracting from short-term dips due to recessions and financial crises.
- Confidence intervals are used to indicate the precision of elasticity estimates; imprecise cases are shown in a lighter shade.

### Key findings on decoupling by country groups
- Advanced economies: evidence of decoupling is emerging.
  - Germany, the United Kingdom, and France: elasticity estimates are negative — emissions have fallen despite increases in incomes; these countries have achieved decoupling.
  - United States, Australia, Japan, and Canada: elasticity estimates are positive but small, between 0.1 and 0.4 — emissions grow at a much slower rate than incomes (no full decoupling yet). In the United States, strong progress since the mid-2000s is attributed mainly to increased use of natural gas for electricity generation.
  - Ukraine, Russia, and Italy: point estimates are close to zero but confidence intervals are wide; the relationship between emissions and incomes is uncertain in these cases.
- Emerging market economies:
  - Remaining countries in the chart (emerging markets) have elasticity estimates that are all positive and exceed 0.6.
  - However, these elasticities are lower than they were in the 1970s and 1980s.
  - Related research finds that within countries such as China, richer provinces are beginning to show signs of decoupling.

### Interpretation of drivers
- Decoupling in advanced economies is attributed to:
  - Active policies aimed at decarbonizing their economies.
  - Structural economic transformation toward a greater role for services.
- Specific energy shifts: increased use of natural gas for electricity generation has been a major factor in the United States since the mid-2000s.

### Policy implications and recommendations
- Progress on decoupling is real but incomplete; controlling emissions to date may still be insufficient to meet global climate goals.
- The IMF recommends carbon pricing—impose charges on the carbon content of fossil fuels or their emissions—to accelerate progress toward a green world.

### Contextual notes
- The analysis highlights positive signs of decoupling in advanced economies while emphasizing that emerging market elasticities remain relatively high.
- Historical perspective: elasticity estimates for emerging markets have declined relative to the 1970s and 1980s, indicating some long-run improvement.

*Authors: João Tovar Jalles, Prakash Loungani — May 21, 2018. The IMF is an organization of 191 countries.*

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## Content in this bundle

- **绿色与繁荣; IMF博客； 2018年5月21日**
  - [绿色与繁荣; IMF博客； 2018年5月21日 (Markdown version)](/external/chinese/np/blog/2018/052118c.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [绿色与繁荣; IMF博客； 2018年5月21日 (PDF)](/external/chinese/np/blog/2018/052118c.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **環境と豊かさ;  ジョアン・トヴァール・ジャーリス　プラカシュ・ラウンガニ; IMF ブログ 2018年5月21日掲載**
  - [環境と豊かさ;  ジョアン・トヴァール・ジャーリス　プラカシュ・ラウンガニ; IMF ブログ 2018年5月21日掲載 (Markdown version)](/external/japanese/np/blog/2018/052118j.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [環境と豊かさ;  ジョアン・トヴァール・ジャーリス　プラカシュ・ラウンガニ; IMF ブログ 2018年5月21日掲載 (PDF)](/external/japanese/np/blog/2018/052118j.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

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## References

- [Español,](https://blog-dialogoafondo.imf.org/?p=9228)
- [Português](http://www.imf.org/pt/News/Articles/2018/05/22/blog-greenery-and-prosperity)
- [https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/BLOG-COTW-1024x600-GERMANY-Brandenburg-Jaenschwalde-power-station_Caro-Kaiser_Newscom.carophotos245439.jpg](https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/BLOG-COTW-1024x600-GERMANY-Brandenburg-Jaenschwalde-power-station_Caro-Kaiser_Newscom.carophotos245439.jpg)
- [https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/eng-cotw-emissionsandgrowth-5.png](https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/eng-cotw-emissionsandgrowth-5.png)
- [advocated](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2015/12/parry.htm)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2018/05/21/blog-greenery-and-prosperity_