## When History Rhymes

_IMF Blog, November 5, 2018_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [When History Rhymes](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2018/11/05/blog-when-history-rhymes)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/blogs/articles/2018/11/05/blog-when-history-rhymes/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/blogs/articles/2018/11/05/blog-when-history-rhymes/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/blogs/articles/2018/11/05/blog-when-history-rhymes/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Christine Lagarde
- Published: November 5, 2018

---

### International cooperation (theme)
- Mark Twain: “History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme.”
- Heads of state gathering in Paris on the 100th anniversary of the end of World War I should “listen closely to the echoes of history and avoid replaying the discordant notes of the past.”
- The IMF and other post‑World War II institutions (United Nations, World Bank) are part of a legacy formed to provide durable solutions to shared global problems.

### Historical parallels: pre‑1914 and today
- The 50 years leading up to the Great War featured:
  - remarkable technological advances: steamships, locomotion, electrification, and telecommunications.
  - previously unprecedented global integration—often called the first era of globalization—where goods, money, and people moved across borders with relatively minimal impediments.
  - between 1870 and 1913, large gains in exports as a share of GDP in many economies—a sign of increasing openness.
- Distributional outcomes in that era:
  - Great wealth creation accompanied by severe inequality.
  - In 1910 in the United Kingdom the top 1% controlled nearly 70% of the nation’s wealth—a disparity never reached before or after.
- Contemporary similarities called out:
  - dizzying technological advances, deepening global integration, and growing prosperity that has lifted vast numbers out of poverty, but has also left many behind.
  - rising inequality and uneven gains from technological change and globalization have contributed to political backlash.

### Risks of mismanaging technological change and globalization
- Historical lesson: when rising inequality and uneven gains prompt a backlash, countries may prioritize national advantage over mutual cooperation, leading to zero‑sum behavior.
- Consequence in the early 20th century:
  - scramble for national advantage, forsaking cooperation, culminating in catastrophe as modern technology was deployed toward war.
- Post‑war failures:
  - In 1918, leaders “failed to draw the correct lessons,” retreating from trade, attempting to recreate the gold standard, and eschewing peaceful cooperation mechanisms.
  - John Maynard Keynes argued that imposing financial ruin on Germany would eventually lead to disaster.

### Adaptation and institutional evolution since World War II
- The post‑World War II system was designed to adapt:
  - examples of evolution include the move to flexible exchange rates in the 1970s and the creation of the World Trade Organization.
- The IMF positions itself as part of institutions that can evolve to sustain global cooperation.

### Call for a new multilateralism (analysis and policy direction)
- A new multilateralism is advocated that is:
  - more inclusive,
  - more people‑centered,
  - more accountable.
- Scope of the new multilateralism should address a broader spectrum of challenges, including:
  - financial integration and fintech,
  - the cost of corruption,
  - climate change.
- The IMF highlights recent research offering policy ideas:
  - macroeconomic benefits of empowering women,
  - modernizing the global trading system.

### Responsibilities and concluding analysis
- Each leader and every citizen has a responsibility to contribute to rebuilding cooperative systems.
- Core assertion: “The peaceful coexistence of nations and the economic prospects of millions depends squarely on our ability to discover the rhymes within our shared history.”

*Source: Christine Lagarde, “When History Rhymes,” November 5, 2018.*

---

## Content in this bundle

- **当历史再现； IMF博客； 2018年11月5日**
  - [当历史再现； IMF博客； 2018年11月5日 (Markdown version)](/external/chinese/np/blog/2018/110518c.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [当历史再现； IMF博客； 2018年11月5日 (PDF)](/external/chinese/np/blog/2018/110518c.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **歴史が韻をを踏むとき　クリスティーヌ・ラガルド；2018年11月5日**
  - [歴史が韻をを踏むとき　クリスティーヌ・ラガルド；2018年11月5日 (Markdown version)](/external/japanese/np/blog/2018/110518j.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [歴史が韻をを踏むとき　クリスティーヌ・ラガルド；2018年11月5日 (PDF)](/external/japanese/np/blog/2018/110518j.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Когда история рифмуется; Кристин Лагард; 5 ноября 2018 года**
  - [Когда история рифмуется; Кристин Лагард; 5 ноября 2018 года (Markdown version)](/external/russian/np/blog/2018/110518r.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Когда история рифмуется; Кристин Лагард; 5 ноября 2018 года (PDF)](/external/russian/np/blog/2018/110518r.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

---

## References

- [عربي](https://www.imf.org/ar/News/Articles/2018/11/05/blog-when-history-rhymes)
- [Português](https://www.imf.org/pt/News/Articles/2018/11/05/blog-when-history-rhymes)
- [https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/BLOG-1024x600-WWI-Multilateralism-The-ossuary-of-Douaumon-France-rance-MATHIEU-PATTIER-SIPA-Newscom-sfphotosthree697094.jpg](https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/BLOG-1024x600-WWI-Multilateralism-The-ossuary-of-Douaumon-France-rance-MATHIEU-PATTIER-SIPA-Newscom-sfphotosthree697094.jpg)
- [new multilateralism](https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2018/10/11/sp101218-new-economic-landscape-new-multilateralism)
- [macroeconomic benefits of empowering women](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Staff-Discussion-Notes/Issues/2018/10/09/Economic-Gains-From-Gender-Inclusion-New-Mechanisms-New-Evidence-45543)
- [modernizing the global trading system](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Policy-Papers/Issues/2018/09/28/093018-reinvigorating-trade-and-inclusive-growth)
- [Steering the World Toward More Cooperation, Not Less](https://blogs.imf.org/2018/09/06/steering-the-world-toward-more-cooperation-not-less/)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2018/11/05/blog-when-history-rhymes_